Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency is highly volatile. The content is only for technical review and does not constitute any trading or investment entry recommendation.

## 1. Daily Major Cycle (Mid-term Bearish Structure Established, Deep Oversold)

1. Moving Average Structure: Price is fully below the MA20/50/100 medium- and long-term moving averages. All moving averages have turned downward, forming a downward-pressuring band. Previous supports have become heavy resistance, and the mid-term downtrend is set.

2. Indicator Status: The daily RSI has fallen to the 31 oversold range. MACD is operating below the zero axis; the green bars gradually narrow, indicating bearish momentum is weakening and exhausting. Only a technical rebound repair remains possible—there is no trend-reversal golden cross signal. The Bollinger Bands open downward, and the price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, trading in an oversold zone.

3. Daily Key Price Levels

• Resistance: 63000 (first intraday resistance), 65800 (Bollinger mid-band + MA20 resonance strong pressure), 69600 (mid-term watershed)

• Support: 59080 (intraday prior low), 57500 (key defense of the 200-week moving average), 53200 (mid-term decline target)

## 2. 4H Cycle (Oversold Brewing a Short-term Rebound; Define the Rebound as a Downward Pullback)

1. Market Indicators: The 4H RSI drops to 23 in an extreme oversold state and becomes dull. KDJ turns upward with a golden cross at low levels. The MACD green bars shrink significantly, and a bottom divergence forms, creating room for a short-term corrective rebound. All short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages firmly remain above the price, so a rebound is unlikely to change the large bearish structure.

2. 4H Key Levels
Resistance: 62500 → 64900 → 67300
Support: 59100 → 57600 → 55300

## 3. 1H Intraday Choppy Range

Intraday fluctuation range: 59000—63200. Holding above 63000 extends the short-term rebound to around 65000. If there is a volume-backed breakdown below 59000, it will trend downward to probe the key support at 57500.

## 4. Market Funds & Interlocking Logic

1. In recent times, perpetual contracts have concentrated deleveraging and a chain of long liquidations. Leverage sell pressure has been partially cleared in stages, but spot ETF funds continue to show a small net outflow, and institutions remain more cautious/observant. Inter-market linkage across all coins is weak overall. ETH and SOL are also running at low levels in tandem, and BTC (the “big coin”) lacks conditions for independent strength.

2. On the macro side, keep a close watch on the volatility of U.S. Treasury yields. A sustained high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress valuations for crypto risk-asset classes.

## 5. Intraday Tranche Practical Strategies (Mainly for Short-term; Strict Position Control, Long-term Remain on the Sidelines)

1、Short-term buy low and go long (oversold game betting on a rebound; fast in and fast out—no holding as a long-term position)

Entry: 59100-59500, open small-position long experiments; stop loss: 58700; take profit: 62300-62900.
Second long: Pull back to 57600, stabilize and add longs; stop loss: 57100; targets: 61500 → 64500.

2、Sell the rebound from above (trend-following as the main idea)

Entry: 62800-63200, build short positions in batches; stop loss: 63850; targets: 60100 → 59200. If it breaks below 59000, hold and look toward 57600.
Second short: Heavy short at 65500-65900; stop loss: 66550; targets: 62000 → 59000.

3、Prudent Observation Rules

• Only if the daily close holds above 69600 can you consider setting up swing long positions;

• If 57500 key support is effectively broken, abandon all bottom-fishing ideas and chase the short in line with the trend toward 53200.
#比特币ETF单日净流出7272枚 $BTC

BTC-5.42%

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