Note: Cryptocurrency volatility is extremely high; analysis is for technical reference only and does not constitute investment or trading advice.

1. Daily Chart Level (Major Cycle Bearish Trend Clearly Defined, Deep Oversold)

1. Moving Average Structure: Price has broken below MA20/50/200 medium- and long-term moving averages; all moving averages are arranged in a bearish downward pattern; the cluster of moving averages above forms layers of resistance; the medium-term decline structure remains intact.

2. Bollinger Bands & Indicators: Daily Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with price running near the lower band; MACD is below the zero line with small green bars converging; daily RSI has fallen to around 29, entering a deep oversold zone, only with technical rebound potential, no reversal conditions.

3. Key Price Levels
Daily Resistance: 1655 (initial resistance), 1775 (Bollinger middle band + MA20 strong resonance resistance), 1815 (daily watershed)
Daily Support: 1530 (intraday low), 1485 (key chip support), 1405 (medium-term downside target)

2. 4H Level (Oversold Brewing Short-term Rebound, Rebound Defined as Downward Pullback)

1. Market Indicators: 4H remains in a stair-step decline, price far from short-term moving averages; 4H RSI drops to 22 in oversold zone; MACD green bars continue to shrink, with bottom divergence gradually forming; short-term rebound demand exists, but the rebound height is firmly suppressed by the midline at 1770.

2. 4H Key Levels
Resistance: 1630 → 1695 → 1775
Support: 1535 → 1490 → 1410

3. 1H Short-term Intraday Range

Intraday Volatility Range: 1530—1650; breaking above 1650 suggests a short-term rebound extending to 1690-1700; volume-supported breakdown below 1530 targets 1490 support.

4. Market Funds & Linkage Logic

1. ETH spot ETF continues to see net capital outflows, institutions are reducing positions, futures short positions remain high, longs are de-leveraging, selling pressure persists on the market;

2. The trend is highly correlated with BTC; until BTC stabilizes and strengthens, ETH is unlikely to break out independently, sector linkage remains weak.

5. Intraday Short-term Strategy

1. Attempt Longs: Light long positions in the 1532-1540 range, stop loss at 1520, take profit at 1620-1645; limited to oversold short-term rebound, not for long-term holding or reversal betting;

2. Short Positions: Gradually build short positions on rebounds at 1645-1655, stop loss at 1670, target 1550 → 1495, if broken, look toward 1405;

3. Wait-and-See: Do not establish a trend-long position until breaking above 1775; abandon bottom-fishing if below 1485, follow the #比特币ETF单日净流出7272枚 trend with shorts.

ETH-12.37%

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