Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Content is for technical review reference only and does not constitute any trading entry advice.

1. Daily Chart Level (Major Cycle Bearish Continuation, Deep Oversold)

1. Moving Average Structure: Prices have broken below all long-term and mid-term moving averages (MA20/50/200), with all moving averages turning downward in a stepwise manner, establishing a medium-term downtrend, linked with BTC's weak downward trend.

2. Indicator Status: Daily RSI has fallen to 22 in an extreme oversold zone, hitting a stage low; MACD is below the zero line, with decreasing green bars, indicating weakening bearish momentum. There is a technical rebound expectation, but no golden cross reversal signal.

3. Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger channel is opening downward, with the price breaking below the lower band, in an oversold zone. The middle band at $72.5 serves as the first resistance on the daily chart.

4. Key Price Levels

• Daily Resistance: 68.3 (initial resistance), 72.5 (Bollinger middle band + MA20 resonance), 78.2 (strong resistance zone)

• Daily Support: 63.0 (intraday low), 60.1 (key annual support), 55.7 (medium-term downside target)

2. 4H Level (Short-term Oversold Brewing Rebound, Rebound Likely to Resume Downtrend)

1. Indicators: 4H RSI dropped to 21 in oversold zone; KDJ shows a low-level golden cross pattern; MACD green bars have significantly narrowed with divergence, indicating potential short-term rebound space. However, long-term moving averages remain firmly above, making the rebound unlikely to change the overall bearish structure.

2. Bollinger Structure: 4H runs along the lower band, with the channel trending downward. The middle band at $68 is a strong rebound hurdle; staying above it suggests continuation of the weak trend.

3. Short-term Key Levels
Resistance: 67.2 → 68.5 → 71.8
Support: 63.2 → 61.5 → 60.2

3. 1H Short-term Intraday Range

Intraday fluctuation range: 60.8—68.2; if it holds above 67, a rebound toward around 71 may occur; if it effectively breaks below 63, it may decline toward the 60 support level.

4. Market & News Sentiment

1. Public chain sector is experiencing collective capital outflows, with SOL spot continuing to see net capital outflows. Futures longs are repeatedly liquidated, deleveraging persists; only scattered low-level buy orders support the price.

2. Overall trend is highly correlated with BTC; before BTC stops falling, SOL is unlikely to break out into an independent upward trend.

5. Intraday Short-term Strategy

1. Short-term Long Attempt: Light long positions in the 63.0–63.5 range, stop loss at 62.3, take profit at 67.0–68.0. Oversold short-term play, not for long-term holding.

2. Short-term Short: Gradually build short positions on rebounds at 67.8–68.5, stop loss at 69.3, target 64.0 → 61.2, with a break below 60 indicating further downside.

3. Wait-and-See: Do not establish trend longs before breaking above 72.5; abandon bottom-fishing if below 60, and look for #比特币ETF单日净流出7272枚 downside continuation.

SOL-10.21%

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