Over the past couple of days, some people have been using that stablecoin supply line—going back and forth with it—to “match the answers” for ETF entries and exits. I find that a little uncomfortable… Correlation is easy to run into, but if we’re talking causality, many times it’s just that everyone’s emotions are aligned, leading to events happening at the same time. Off-chain funds also don’t necessarily turn into stablecoins first and then come in; sometimes it’s just switching channels. Once there’s a time lag, you start to think, “It drove it.” When I review it myself, I still stick to the basics: a single chart—position, time, and emotion—first, check whether I’m being led by the narrative.

By the way, this airdrop season, the points + anti-bot (anti–Sybil) efforts have made it feel like clocking in for work. On-chain activity looks busy and lively, but how much of it is “task-driven traffic” is anyone’s guess… So whenever I see the data spike, I’ll first ask: has the money actually come in, or are people just being pushed around by KPIs? In any case, in extreme market conditions, I’m even more afraid of misreading things—I’d rather be half a step behind.