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In early February this year, Bitcoin briefly touched $60k and then rebounded. What will happen this time?
The past two months, the US stock market has been fierce, with AI and tech sectors drawing global attention.
Bitcoin is very risky now; the 64,000 level is cut in half from its all-time high.
During these more than two months of the Nasdaq's rapid run, Bitcoin has been sideways, and in the past two days, it has plunged directly, quickly falling below 65,000 points.
After months of silence, unexpectedly, it "pounced" into everyone's view in this way.
The trigger for the sharp decline is not just one factor, but multiple influences interacting:
1 ETF institutions are retreating en masse
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly net outflow of up to $3.4 billion in the week of June, the largest single-week withdrawal since its launch, involving BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and others.
Since mid-May, it has been outflowing for 11 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since ETF launch.
In May alone, net outflows reached $2.4 billion, making it the worst month of the year.
2 Saylor sells coins, the "HODL only" belief collapses
MicroStrategy sold about 32 BTC at the end of May, the first sale in nearly five years, used to pay preferred stock dividends.
Although 32 BTC is a tiny fraction compared to a holding of over 80k BTC, the "signal significance" far exceeds the actual impact.
3 Macro + geopolitical pressures
The US, Iran, and Israel's tensions have reignited, boosting demand for traditional safe-haven assets, while the crypto market is also under pressure.
Plus, the Fed's rate cut expectations have once again fallen short, with rising treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets.
4 Leverage liquidations amplify the decline, creating a "death spiral" in futures and spot markets
Over $1.8 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, the largest since February this year, further accelerating the drop.
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Having observed Bitcoin for so long, every time there's a big drop or surge, even passing dogs can't help but peek through the door crack to find the reason.
Everyone says this time is different. Wait for the cycle to pass—seems like it's always the same.
1 Once the downtrend begins, it’s easy for the market to see Europe and the US hit first, then Asia. Conversely, the same applies to rallies.
If there’s no strong support after US stock market closes, Asia often opens with a decline or sideways movement, with sentiment transmission being quite direct.
Currently, the Fear & Greed Index is at 23, in extreme fear territory, so the momentum for a rebound in Asia is limited.
The key level now is $60k; the market is generally watching this line.
If it holds, this wave is a deep correction; if it doesn’t, there might be more to go.
2 Risk assets tend to have a characteristic: once a support or resistance level is broken, they tend to continue falling or rising.
This is essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy in the market.
Initially, these price levels have no physical significance, but if enough people believe they do, they become meaningful.
When the price breaks support, several forces may be triggered simultaneously:
First, stop-loss orders cluster around these levels. Many traders set stop-losses below support; once broken, these orders trigger, selling pressure pushes the price further down.
Second, leveraged liquidations cascade. Traders using leverage get forced out once the level is broken, and the resulting sell-off drives prices lower, triggering more liquidations in a death spiral.
The link between futures and spot markets operates through this mechanism.
Third, psychological signals change. Hesitant holders see the "support broken," interpret the trend as changing, and exit actively.
Those hoping to buy the dip see the level broken and hold back.
Selling pressure increases, buying diminishes, and the decline accelerates.
So, the interesting part is: whether technical analysis is correct or not may not matter; what matters is how many people are using it.
The more people use it, the more these levels become effective.
This phenomenon exists across other assets as well, representing collective consensus or expectations guiding market behavior.
3 Every time Bitcoin drops like this, someone says it will fall to $30,000–$40k or even zero, but it never happens.
Each failed "zero" prediction is itself a piece of information.
An asset with no real value backing will indeed go to zero in extreme panic—whether in Web2 or Web3, countless aircoins and Ponzi schemes have disappeared this way.
But Bitcoin has experienced an 80% drop in 2018, a 75% drop in 2022, and this time from 120k to over 60,000.
Every "death" prophecy has been proven wrong, and each time, buy orders appear at certain levels to support it.
There are several real supports behind this:
First, the cost floor of miners. Mining involves real electricity and hardware costs; when prices fall to levels where miners shut down en masse, supply automatically contracts—this is a physical anchor for the bottom.
Second, the structure of holders is hardening. Each major crash washes out speculators, leaving believers.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders' proportion increases during bear markets, with chips increasingly concentrated in those who won't sell.
Third, narratives are becoming institutionalized. After ETF approval, BlackRock is selling BTC products, and the "zero" narrative is shrinking because real institutional interests are supporting this asset class.
Repeated failures to go to zero serve as proof of value; it’s not survivor bias but a filtering mechanism in action.
Of course, $30,000–$40k is not impossible; every time the "zero" narrative is called, its credibility diminishes.
4 When Bitcoin falls, you don’t know why it’s falling; when it rises, you don’t know why it’s rising.
Assets with such high uncertainty are unique to Bitcoin.
This is an eternal philosophical question for Bitcoin.
Undeniably, Bitcoin’s "value" relies entirely on consensus—no profit, no dividends, no cash flow; fundamentally, it’s only valuable because everyone believes it is.
Gold follows the same logic, but it has thousands of years of consensus accumulation.
Bitcoin is only over a decade old, and consensus is still being built.
If market confidence wavers, its declines can be much worse than gold.
Bitcoin’s price is purely a function of expectations and sentiment—spectacular rises and falls.
But on the flip side, no earnings support also means no earnings ceiling.
Nvidia’s market cap growth is ultimately anchored in real profits.
If consensus around Bitcoin continues to expand, theoretically, there’s no ceiling—
Rising is based on consensus, falling is based on consensus.
High risk and high volatility are the price of holding Bitcoin, and also the opportunity.

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