BTC combined with historical similar pattern trends: After a decline, the market is highly likely to oscillate around the secondary low point, repeatedly fake support to induce more buying, creating a false illusion of “the low point won't break, a rebound is imminent,” luring retail investors to buy the dip and set stop-loss orders below the previous low. Subsequently, the main force concentrates on smashing the price down to break the key low point, completing the stop-loss hunt of the bulls.

The larger timeframe is in the late stage of the 5-wave decline, and the complete downward structure has not yet played out. The true bottom requires experiencing an extremely bleak phase: funds continue to flow out to US stocks, gold, silver, and other assets, a large number of retail investors exit the market, trading volume shrinks dramatically, overall market activity cools down, and negative news floods the airwaves; only when retail investors panic and sell off, and short-term traders are forced out in large numbers, will large capital have enough environment to slowly accumulate at low levels. Currently, the conditions for a bottom are not yet met.

There are no signs of extreme panic selling or rates turning significantly negative, indicating there is still some downside space before the real bottom.

Yesterday, a fan asked me: “Is it time to buy the dip?”

My answer remains: “You can only buy the dip near the end of the year, either in late December or in the first quarter of 2027.”

The bear market cycle is long~

Even if it drops to $45,000, it might just be entering the bottoming phase. Major reversals require multiple large-scale oscillations and fake breakdowns to form weekly price divergences before the bottom can be established.