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Don't rush to blame this wave of sharp decline entirely on US employment data; what's truly glaring is: prices are falling, but positions haven't yet capitulated.
$BTC Current report at $60,918, already close to the $60k threshold, indicating the market is re-testing the previous panic zone's capacity to absorb.
In the past hour, over $500 million in liquidations have occurred across the entire market, which is not ordinary volatility but a concentrated liquidation of leveraged positions.
US job growth exceeded expectations significantly, pushing the "interest rate cut trade" further back, which directly cools high-volatility assets.
More importantly, the capital flow does not support a rebound narrative.
BlackRock has net outflows of 30,119 BTC over the past 10 days, about $1.92 billion, indicating that institutions are not just slightly adjusting their holdings but are continuously withdrawing a large chunk of spot holdings.
During the same period, 161,829 ETH were also withdrawn, about $60k, showing that pressure isn't only on Bitcoin; mainstream assets are also being drained liquidity.
Although Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows have shown small inflows, "small-scale stop-loss" and "capital reflow" are not the same thing.
On the futures side, it looks more like a tightly stretched net.
$BTC Open interest still stands at $6.13 billion, indicating that leverage in the market hasn't been significantly cleared, and any sudden spike could amplify volatility.
$BTC Longs account for 68%, meaning that even with prices near $61k, many are still holding their positions.
Active buy-sell ratio is 0.93, indicating that active sell orders still outweigh buy orders, and there are no clear signs of the market reclaiming pricing power.
Altcoins and high-beta tokens are also sending the same signal.
$SOL Mark price at $65.15, funding rate -0.0114%, meaning shorts are paying more, and the market's bearish bets are more crowded.
$ETH Mark price at $1,597.39, funding rate -0.0064%, indicating Ethereum isn't being singled out for mistreatment but is also under a collective defensive stance among mainstream leverage.
BABY funding rate -0.63%, VIC -0.407%, LA -0.383%, these coins with extreme negative rates resemble short-term squeeze zones; when shorts are too crowded, a rebound can be very messy.
ESPORTS funding rate +0.162%, GUA +0.121%, SIREN +0.105%, these coins with positive rates are in crowded long zones; they surge strongly in favorable conditions but are more vulnerable to liquidation chains in adverse conditions.
This round of market signals should not be taken lightly.
Employment data, institutional outflows, $500 million liquidations, fear index 12, 68% long positions on BTC—these elements together strongly suggest that the market has not yet completed deleveraging.
The real watershed isn't just in words about panic but in the fact that prices still hover around $60k.
Assisted by Claude Opus 4.8 model; this is not investment advice, please make your own judgments.