⚠️LAST MINUTE⚠️

Extremely critical US employment data has been released for the markets!!!
Let's review the details of the data and its impact on the markets one by one:
1. Summary of the Data and Fed Perception
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Significantly above expectations of 85K, announced at 172K. This indicates that the US labor market remains resilient and vibrant.
Unemployment Rate: Remained steady at 4.3%, in line with expectations.
Main Scenario: The strong employment figures so far dismiss fears of a recession in the US economy for now. However, this situation reinforces the perception that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates. After this data, US 10-year bond yields and the Dollar Index (DXY) may react upward.
2. Detailed Market Analysis
🪙 Gold and Silver (Precious Metals)
Effect: Short-term negative / Pressuring.
Why: Strong non-farm payroll data could prolong the Fed's hawkish stance. This pushes the DXY and bond yields higher, creating selling pressure on gold and silver that do not yield interest.
Comment: We might see downward spikes or profit-taking on an ounce basis after the data. However, medium- to long-term trends will continue to depend on geopolitical risks and the overall macro outlook.
🇺🇸 US Stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones)
Effect: Sideways / Mixed (Slight negative start, followed by a recovery trend).
Why: Two conflicting sentiments in the market:
1 Bad News: The Fed may keep interest rates high for a long time (negative for growth and tech stocks).
2 Good News: The US economy is strong, recession risk is low (positive for corporate profitability).
Comment: Initially, there may be slight sell-offs or a bearish opening in indices (especially Nasdaq) due to interest rate pressure. However, this data confirming economic strength could support a rebound later in the session.
₿ Cryptocurrency Market (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.)
Effect: Negative / Pressuring.
Why: Cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to global liquidity and interest rate expectations. The high NFP figure, along with the thought that "the Fed may delay rate cuts," short-term risk appetite may diminish.
Comment: Sudden pullbacks could occur in Bitcoin and major altcoins, potentially leading to leveraged liquidations. Until liquidity pressure eases, a cautious approach may be maintained in the crypto space.
🇹🇷 Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100)
Effect: Limited / Indirect Effect.
Why: Currently, BIST 100 is more driven by its internal dynamics (inflation, domestic interest rates, gray list processes, foreign inflows). However, a decline in global risk appetite and possible capital outflows from emerging markets (due to dollar strengthening) could exert slight downward pressure on BIST.
Comment: Parallel to global selling pressure, if global sentiment turns negative at Monday's opening or at the close of the day, a slight realization may occur; but it is not a data set that will disrupt the main domestic story.
In summary; since the data supports the theme of "Strong Dollar, High Interest Rates," it is normal to see short-term selling pressure on risky assets (cryptos, stocks) and precious metals (gold, silver).
Average Hourly Earnings (Monthly): Came in line with expectations at 0.3% (previously 0.2%). While there is no radical jump in wage inflation, a downward trend is also not observed.
#Altın #Silver #Borsa #Bitcoin #Dolar #Bist100 #Ethereum #Quantfury #FED #Nasdaq #spx500 #SPX #dxy #US10Y #Faiz #CBRT #petrol #Economy #TunaKaya