Be careful of trap trading: Non-farm night isn’t a surprise—it’s a trap!

Tonight’s Non-Farm payrolls are not just a set of figures, but also the first “monthly exam” for Fed Chair Waller after taking office. At the same time, recent employment data is seriously “at odds”: ADP is hot, April job openings surged, but small business hiring intentions have fallen to the lowest level in six years; in May, AI layoffs in the tech industry exceeded 38,000, setting a new historical record. The market expects an increase of 85,000 jobs, but Goldman Sachs expects 60,000, Ernst & Young expects 50,000, and even Vanguard expects 20,000—investment banks have never been this divided. No matter which set of numbers is released tonight, half the people will feel surprised.

For the crypto market, the core game is this: will the employment data strengthen expectations of rate cuts, or ignite recession fears? If it’s the former, the market will naturally be happy; if it’s the latter, funds will withdraw from risk assets immediately. More importantly, even if the data is relatively mild, given the backdrop of AI layoffs spreading, continuous net outflows from ETFs, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, it’s still unknown whether the market can truly absorb this news.

Trading approach:
Therefore, tonight’s price action will very likely see sharp volatility, and even form a “first rising to lure in longs, then falling” pattern.
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