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Non-farm data will be announced soon (Tokyo time 21:30 / Beijing time 20:30). Regarding the current macro liquidity, here is a brief data forecast and market impact speculation: #BTC $BTC
The three core scenarios and their impacts:
1. Scenario A: Data far exceeds expectations (strong employment / low unemployment rate) — 40% probability
* Logic: Indicates persistent inflationary pressure, and the Fed's rate cut in the second half of the year may be thwarted.
* Impact: The US dollar index surges; gold (XAU), US stock AI sector, and cryptocurrencies (BTC/ETH/SOL) will experience short-term flash crashes or indiscriminate sell-offs.
2. Scenario B: Data far below expectations (weak employment / rising unemployment rate) — 35% probability
* Logic: Signs of economic recession appear, forcing the Fed to cut rates quickly and loosen monetary policy.
* Impact: The dollar crashes; gold, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies all rebound sharply.
3. Scenario C: Basically in line with expectations — 25% probability
* Logic: The market will shift to look for details such as "wage growth" and other sub-indicator data.
* Impact: Short-term intense two-way shakeout (up and down spikes), then return to the original oscillation trend.