Daily chart level (major downtrend)

Price has completely broken below the 5/20/50/100-day moving averages, all moving averages are turning downward, forming multiple layers of resistance; Bollinger Bands are fully trending downward, with the price operating below the lower band; MACD below zero line with increasing green bars, indicating a clear medium-term downtrend with no reversal signals.

• Key resistance: first at 65,000 USDT, strong resistance at 67,000 and 70,000 USDT (former support turned resistance)

• Key support: short-term at 61,000-61,300 USDT (intraday low), with the ultimate psychological level at 60k USDT; a decisive break below 60,000 will open a new downward space.

4-hour short-term (oversold with recovery needs)

After bottoming at 61,381, the price slightly rebounded and stabilized; 4-hour MACD green bars contracted with slight bullish divergence; RSI entered oversold territory, indicating only a technical oversold rebound, which does not change the overall bearish trend; most rebounds are just a continuation of the decline.

• Short-term range: 61,300~65,000, likely to see narrow sideways consolidation during the day.

III. Market outlook and scenario analysis

1. Short-term: Relying on the support at 61,000 to oscillate and recover, with the first target for a rebound at 64,800-65,200; once reaching resistance, the probability of pulling back is higher; if volume increases and breaks below 61,000 support, the price will trend downward toward the 60,000 level.

2. Medium-term: As ETF outflows continue and institutional selling has not yet ended, the overall pattern remains weak and oscillating downward; short-term rebounds should not be mistaken for trend reversals or bottom-fishing signals. #预测NBA总冠军赢20,000U