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Affected by Bitcoin market trends, the decline may not be over—A Deep Dive into CIRCLE's Stock Price
In the recent bullish run of the U.S. stock market, only two stocks stand out as "out of place," not only failing to rise but also falling against the trend: MicroStrategy and CIRCLE. Unlike MicroStrategy, which fully ties its performance to Bitcoin prices, CIRCLE still has its own main business and stable revenue streams. Let’s take a look together with Little Wealth God:
1. Market Summary
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) closed at $90.13 on June 4, 2026, and slightly rose to $90.54 in pre-market on June 5, a 0.45% increase, with a trading volume of $1.12B and 12.23 million shares traded, significantly higher than its 52-week average. The stock fluctuated within the range of $89.20–$95.18, showing characteristics of “high turnover, narrow volatility,” reflecting market tug-of-war between positive fundamentals and macro uncertainties.
As the issuer of the world’s second-largest stablecoin USDC, CRCL’s core value is anchored in on-chain asset size and regulatory compliance. In Q1 2026, USDC circulation reached $77 billion, a 28% YoY increase, with on-chain trading volume surpassing $21.5 trillion, a 263% surge YoY. Although GAAP net profit declined 15% YoY to $55 million due to stock compensation and infrastructure investments, adjusted EBITDA reached $151 million, exceeding market expectations, demonstrating the resilience of its business model. Market focus is shifting from short-term profits to long-term ecosystem expansion—its institutional digital asset platform Arc completed a $222 million token pre-sale, valued at $3 billion, marking its transition from a “stablecoin issuer” to a “digital financial infrastructure provider.”
2. Technical Indicator Analysis
The current technical structure is at a critical turning point. The moving average system shows the 50-day moving average at $105.56, and the 200-day moving average closely aligned with the current price at $89.33, forming a typical “death cross followed by recovery” pattern. The price repeatedly tests near the 200-day moving average, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 49.53, in the neutral zone, with no overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) signals, suggesting market sentiment is not extreme and the trend has yet to establish a clear direction. The MACD histogram shows a negative value of -1.44, with the fast and slow lines not yet forming a golden cross, indicating short-term downward momentum is weakening but has not yet shifted to a clear bullish momentum.
The Bollinger Bands’ middle band is at $92.50. The current price is below the middle band but has not touched the lower band (around $85), indicating the price is in the middle of a sideways downtrend, not yet entering panic selling territory. Volume remains high, showing strong market participation, but the price has not broken through effectively, implying institutions are waiting for clearer signals.
Options market data shows that put options expiring on June 5 at the $90 strike form a dense open interest, creating a short-term “option wall,” while call options are concentrated at $95 and $100, reflecting market expectations of a breakout above the upper band, but no consensus has formed yet.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support levels:
First support—$89.20. The intraday low on June 4, serving as the current bull-bear dividing line. A break below this level could trigger automated stop-loss orders.
Second support—$89.33. The 200-day moving average, a vital line for medium- to long-term trends, historically triggering rebounds at this level, widely regarded by institutional funds as a “bottom line.”
Third support—$85. This is the low point in May 2026, corresponding to the valuation floor under the slowdown in USDC circulation growth expectations. A break below could lead to a systemic reevaluation of profitability sustainability.
Resistance levels:
First resistance—$95.18. The intraday high on June 4, also the upper boundary of the recent trading range. A breakout requires high volume; otherwise, it may be a “false breakout” followed by a pullback.
Second resistance—$100. The psychological round number and an area of dense call options expiring on June 12, serving as a short-term critical resistance.
Third resistance—$105.56. The 50-day moving average. If the price stabilizes above this level for three consecutive days, it would confirm a shift from a short-term downtrend to a medium-term uptrend, opening the path toward a target of $120.
4. Market Outlook
In the short term, CRCL is in a “fundamental support + technical bottoming + options game” triple resonance stage. The global regulatory registration of USDC (OCC, MiCA, FCA) has built an irreplicable compliance moat. Institutional clients increased by 120% YoY, and the launch of the Arc platform further expands revenue sources. However, Fed rate policy uncertainties, the downward pressure on reserve yields (current 3.5% vs. 4.2% last year), and rising operating expenses still cap profit growth.
Optimistic scenario: If Q2 earnings show USDC circulation surpassing $80 billion and Arc platform revenue exceeds expectations, coupled with the Fed signaling rate cuts, the stock could volume-break above $105, opening an upward channel toward $120–$130. Institutional funds might accumulate during a volatile correction.
Risk scenario: If USDC growth slows below 20%, or regulators tighten stablecoin reserve requirements (e.g., requiring 100% cash reserves), it could directly impact its core profit model. A decline below $89.33 with increased volume might trigger technical selling, pushing the price down to $85 or even $80.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, CRCL is one of the few stablecoin issuers with “central bank-level” compliance credentials. Its business model essentially represents “the issuance of currency in the digital age.” As CBDC and DeFi ecosystems accelerate integration worldwide, USDC’s role as a compliant stablecoin infrastructure will become increasingly important. The current stock price reflects short-term profit fluctuations rather than long-term value.
5. Investment Recommendations
For medium- to long-term investors (holding period over 6 months):
The current price at $90.54 still has about 30% upside to the analyst’s 2027 target of $120–$130, and its valuation (P/S ratio around 3.5) is far below industry leader Tether’s implied valuation. It is recommended to accumulate gradually in the $89–$90 range, with increased positions near $85. Keep an eye on Q2 earnings (expected mid-July) for USDC circulation and Arc platform revenue data.
For short-term traders (holding period from a few days to two weeks):
Avoid chasing the high; wait for a confirmed breakout near $95. If volume breaks above $95 and stabilizes, consider a light position targeting $105, with a stop-loss below $89. If the price consolidates around $90 with decreasing volume, consider buying the dip for a rebound, but beware of “shakeout” traps.
What do you all think about CIRCLE? Here’s a soul-searching question for everyone: Like Bitcoin, has CRCL reached the bottom? Share your answers in the comments!