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After I muted the group, my mind suddenly became much clearer.
In the past, everyone would stare at the extreme funding rate and argue "Is it about to reverse / continue to bubble up," and I would also be emotionally driven to add or reduce positions.
Now that I’ve calmed down and thought about it, options are basically just time value eating people: buyers are worn down by time every day, even if they pick the right direction, they have to run fast enough; sellers look like they’re making easy money, but they’re actually using tail risk as fuel, earning the rent of others’ anxiety.
The more extreme the funding rate, the more it seems like the market is collectively offering a price for “certainty,” but in the end, it’s usually time that wears down most people’s confidence…
Anyway, I now prefer to watch when the protocol’s fee switch is truly pressed by someone, at least that’s cash flow, not emotion.