#比特币ETF单日净流出7272枚 After 4 months, Bitcoin has once again reached the 6-digit mark, and the entire network is searching for the reason.

1
In early February this year, Bitcoin briefly touched $60k and then rebounded. What will happen this time?
In the past two months, the US stock market has been very strong, with AI and technology sectors capturing global attention.
Bitcoin is quite risky now; the 64,000 level is already halved from its all-time high.
During these more than two months of the Nasdaq's rapid surge, Bitcoin has been sideways, and in the past two days, it has plunged directly, quickly falling below 65,000 points.
After months of silence, unexpectedly, it "pounced" into everyone's view in this way.
Multiple factors triggered the sharp decline, influencing each other:
1 ETF institutions retreat en masse
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly net outflow of up to $3.4 billion in June, the largest single-week withdrawal since its launch, involving BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and others.
Since mid-May, there have been 11 consecutive trading days of net outflows, the longest continuous outflow record since ETF launch.
In May alone, net outflows reached $2.4 billion, making it the worst month of the year.
2 Saylor sells coins, the "HODL only" belief collapses
MicroStrategy sold about 32 BTC at the end of May, marking the first sale of Bitcoin in nearly five years, used to pay preferred stock dividends.
Although 32 BTC is just a drop in the bucket compared to a holding of over 80k BTC, the "signal significance" far exceeds the actual impact.
3 Macro + geopolitical pressures
The US, Iran, and Israel's tripartite situation has once again caused turmoil, boosting demand for traditional safe-haven assets, while the crypto market is also under pressure.
Additionally, the Fed's rate cut expectations have once again fallen short, with rising Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets overall.
4 Leverage liquidations amplify the decline, creating a "death spiral" in the futures and spot markets
Over $1.8 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, the largest scale since February this year, further accelerating the drop.
2
Having observed Bitcoin for so long, every time there's a big drop or surge, even passing dogs can't help but poke their heads in to find the reason.
Everyone says, this time is different. Wait for the cycle to pass, but it seems every time is the same.
1 Once the downtrend starts, it’s easy for the market to see Europe and the US hit first, then Asia. Conversely, the same applies to rallies.
If there’s no strong support after US stock market closes, Asia often opens with a decline or sideways movement, with a relatively direct emotional transmission.
Currently, the Fear & Greed Index is at 23, in extreme fear territory, and under such sentiment, Asia's rebound momentum is weak.
The key level now is $60k; the market is generally watching this line.
If it holds, this wave is a deep correction; if it doesn’t, there may be more to go.
2 Risk assets tend to continue falling or rising once they break certain support or resistance levels.
This is essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy in the market.
Initially, these price levels have no physical significance, but if enough people believe they do, they truly become meaningful.
When the price breaks support, it may trigger several forces simultaneously:
First, stop-loss orders get triggered en masse. Many traders place stop-loss orders below support; once broken, these orders sell automatically, flooding the sell side and pushing prices lower.
Second, leveraged liquidations cascade. Traders using leverage get forced out once the point is broken, and the resulting sell orders push prices down further, triggering more liquidations in a death spiral.
This mechanism links futures and spot markets.
Third, psychological signals change. Those hesitant about holding see the "support broken," judge the trend has changed, and exit actively.
Those hoping to buy the dip see the level broken and hold back.
With buy orders disappearing and sell orders surging, the decline accelerates.
Therefore, the interesting part is: whether technical analysis is correct may not matter; what matters is how many people are using it.
The more people use it, the more these levels become effective.
This phenomenon exists in other assets as well, representing collective consensus or expectations coordinating market behavior.
3 Every time Bitcoin drops like this, someone always says it will fall to $30,000–$40k or even zero, but it never happens.
Every failed "zero" prediction is itself a piece of information.
An asset with no real value backing will indeed go to zero in extreme panic—whether in Web2 or Web3, countless aircoins and Ponzi projects have disappeared this way in history.
But Bitcoin has experienced an 80% drop in 2018, a 75% drop in 2022, and this time from 120k to over 60,000; every "death" prophecy has been proven wrong, and each time, buy orders have appeared at certain levels to support it.
There are several real supports behind this:
First, the low cost of miners. Mining involves real electricity and hardware costs; when prices fall to levels where miners shut down en masse, supply automatically contracts—this is a physical anchor at the bottom.
Second, the structure of holders is hardening. Each sharp decline washes out speculators, leaving believers.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders' proportion increases during bear markets, with chips increasingly concentrated in those who don’t sell.
Third, narratives are becoming institutionalized. After ETF launch, BlackRock is selling BTC products, and the "zero" narrative space is shrinking because real institutional interests are supporting this asset class.
Repeated non-zeroing itself becomes a proof of value; it’s not survivor bias but a filtering mechanism in operation.
Of course, $30,000–$40k is not entirely impossible; every time the "zero" narrative is called, its credibility diminishes.
4 When Bitcoin falls, you don’t know why it fell; when it rises, you don’t know why it rose.
Assets with such high uncertainty are unique to Bitcoin.
This is an eternal philosophical question for Bitcoin.
Undeniably, Bitcoin’s "value" relies entirely on consensus—no profit, no dividends, no cash flow; essentially, it’s only valuable because everyone believes it is.
Gold follows the same logic, but it has thousands of years of consensus accumulation.
Bitcoin is only over a decade old, and consensus is still being built. Once market confidence wavers, its drops are much more severe than gold’s.
Bitcoin’s price is purely a function of expectations and sentiment—spectacular rises and falls.
But on the flip side, no performance backing also means no performance ceiling.
Nvidia’s market cap growth is ultimately anchored in real profits.
If consensus around Bitcoin continues to expand, theoretically, there’s no ceiling—
Rising is based on consensus, falling is based on consensus.
High risk and high volatility are the price of holding Bitcoin, but also opportunities.