#BTC Will Bitcoin break 60k soon? Where is the bottom?

In an extreme panic market, the market faces a critical cyclical decision!
This round of the crypto market has experienced a deep correction, with panic sentiment spreading rapidly. Amid this week's sharp decline, hundreds of thousands of traders were liquidated, and the total daily liquidation amount across the market has repeatedly exceeded $1 billion, with highly leveraged long positions being concentratedly slaughtered. Market data shows that the leading privacy coin ZEC (Zcash) experienced a maximum single-day drop of over 50%, rapidly falling from a recent high above $700, with a low of below $260, significantly shrinking its short-term market value. The market's bellwether, Bitcoin, also weakened in tandem, continuously retreating from the high above $70k, touching the critical support level of $61,000. Major Wall Street institutions show signs of phased selling, coupled with cyclical adjustment pressures, leading to a market cap evaporation of hundreds of billions this week, with most investors caught in extreme anxiety. As the weekend approaches, markets often face additional volatility, possibly leading to further corrective adjustments. The core disputes in the market focus on two major issues: Is this correction a deep collapse at the end of the cycle, or an opportunity for "fear when others are greedy" cycle positioning? Does the recent plunge of ZEC mean the end of the trend? Will Bitcoin fall below $60,000 and enter the five-figure price range?

This article comprehensively analyzes the core causes of this plunge and the probability of market bottoms from five dimensions: macro fundamentals, on-chain data, historical cycle patterns, technical formations, and project core value. It also provides a practical market judgment framework to help investors step out of emotional misconceptions and respond rationally to extreme market conditions.

1. ZEC's over 50% deep plunge: not simply following the trend, but caused by multiple negative factors resonating
The sharp decline of ZEC this round is not an isolated event but a result of systemic deleveraging, short-term bubble clearing, and risks in segmented sectors stacking together. The tragic scene of hundreds of thousands of liquidations this week directly reflects the resonance of leverage and panic sentiment. Prior to this, ZEC had experienced an independent bull run driven by strong narrative logic, with gains far exceeding the broader market. Relying on four core positives—2024-2025 halving supply reduction, record-high on-chain shielded address counts, institutional (Grayscale Trust) continued deployment, and rising privacy narrative demand—ZEC accumulated over 1,000% gains from lows, once surpassing Monero (XMR) to top the privacy coin market cap. However, the over 50% extreme drop this round is the result of multiple negative factors releasing simultaneously, which can be summarized into four main dimensions:
1. Market risk collapse, naturally amplifying altcoin declines!
Bitcoin, as the market's core indicator, continues to retreat, directly hitting risk appetite. The selling pressure from major Wall Street institutions, combined with ZEC's prior accumulation of short-term profit-taking and leveraged chasing funds, creates a negative cycle of "decline—liquidation—further decline." During this week, over $1 billion in total market liquidations, with leveraged altcoin positions bearing the brunt.
2. Excessive short-term speculative bubbles, profit-taking concentrated outflows!
ZEC's short-term surge of over 1,000% has severely overextended its short-term fundamentals. While privacy sector projects have long-term value, their real-world application scenarios are still in early stages and cannot support exponential valuations. High-position speculative funds have exited en masse, intensifying this week's bloodbath.
3. Macro geopolitical negative pressures, continuous outflow of high-risk capital
In the first half of 2026, global macro uncertainties intensify (sticky inflation, US-Iran geopolitical conflicts, etc.), leading to heightened risk aversion and capital fleeing high-risk assets. Bitcoin spot ETF outflows and slight institutional reductions further amplify volatility.
4. Inherent regulatory uncertainty in the privacy coin sector
Although ZEC has compliance innovations like optional viewing keys, under tightening global regulations, privacy coin scrutiny risks always exist, becoming a key reason for capital panic withdrawals.
Key emphasis: The current ZEC plunge is driven by sentiment and capital valuation reversion, not a fundamental collapse. Its core metrics—zk-SNARKs zero-knowledge privacy technology, halving of daily new issuance, growing shielded transaction volume—have not deteriorated, and its long-term value remains intact. This is the core confidence that distinguishes it from inferior projects.

2. Bitcoin at $61,000 support level oscillation: Deep analysis of the probability of entering the five-figure range
Currently, Bitcoin is weakly oscillating in the $61,000-$63,000 range, repeatedly testing key support levels. This zone overlaps with miner cost lines, long-term holder cost bases, and institutional accumulation costs, with multiple historical rebounds occurring here. This week’s liquidation of hundreds of thousands of traders and institutional selling pressure make this support test even more brutal, with further corrections possible over the weekend.
1. Core support and resistance zones
Short-term strong support: $59,000-$61,000 (psychological level + dense trading zones). Effectively holding this area could form a double bottom.
Medium-term deep support: $55,000-$58,000 (mid- to long-term moving averages and average holding costs).
Short-term key resistance: $65,000-$68,000 (area with dense trapped positions).
2. Probability of Bitcoin falling below five figures (below $50,000):
In the short term, the probability is very low unless a major black swan event occurs. The core logic: overall institutional holdings remain stable, despite phased outflows, the long-term framework is not fully broken. The halving cycle benefits are still unfolding, and historical corrections are often just shakeouts rather than the end of a bull market. Market sentiment reaching extreme panic levels often marks a bottom.
Risk reminder: If liquidation waves and institutional outflows persist, and if the price effectively breaks below $60,000 with increased volume, it could test lower supports. History does not repeat exactly but rhymes—similar to cyclical adjustments, weekend volatility often amplifies, and macro uncertainties in 2026 remain, so shakeouts are normal.

3. Market bottom signal system: no precise lowest point, but clear reversal signals
The crypto market has no "absolute bottom," but phase bottoms can be identified through on-chain data + technical formations + macro + sentiment dimensions. The extreme panic and large-scale liquidations this week often mark the end of bearish momentum.
On-chain data signals (key basis):
ZEC: Shielded pool funds expanding, privacy transaction activity rising.
Bitcoin: Increased long-term holder lock-up rates, outflows from exchanges, stablecoin inflows, indicating decreasing selling pressure. Technical signals:
RSI oversold fatigue, MACD bullish crossover at low levels, volume contraction followed by rebound.
Macro and sentiment signals:
Fed policy shift expectations + extreme pessimism across the network (prelude to a turning point in history).
Over 300,000 traders liquidated and institutions sold off this week, pushing panic sentiment to a peak.
4. Cyclical market outlook:
Short-term (1-4 weeks): high probability of rebound and correction, but dominated by weekend adjustments and sentiment suppression, mainly consolidating at the bottom.
Mid-term (1-3 months): macro improvements could see ZEC retest $400-$600, Bitcoin return to $70,000-$80,000. Long-term (end of 2026 and beyond): rising privacy demand + institutional adoption, with ZEC still having upside potential based on technological advantages, depending on regulatory progress.
Conclusion: Extreme panic often breeds cyclical opportunities
ZEC's over 50% plunge, Bitcoin's support at $61,000, and over 300,000 liquidations plus institutional selling this week are normal cyclical phenomena in crypto bull-bear rotations and bubble clearing. History does not repeat exactly but rhymes—every extreme panic has historically brewed new phase opportunities. The institutional consensus on Bitcoin, halving logic, and ZEC’s core privacy technology remain fundamentally unchanged. True cycle traversers are those with comprehensive analysis logic and long-term fundamental understanding. Current extreme panic is both a risk and a low-position entry window. Stay rational, focus on fundamentals, and the bottom often quietly forms at the most pessimistic moments.