The AI investment boom itself is becoming one of the structural drivers of inflation. Federal Reserve officials have clearly pointed out that the surge in demand triggered by AI infrastructure development is materially changing the price-formation mechanism. AI compute-capital expenditure, in turn, is pushing up expectations for interest rates, and technology stocks are facing a paradox of “lighting their own fire, then getting roasted themselves.”

But Nvidia’s fundamentals are unlikely to be shaken in the short term. TSMC has just confirmed at its shareholders’ meeting that AI chips will be “in short supply for the coming years,” maintaining guidance for year-over-year U.S. dollar revenue growth of 30% or more in 2026. TrendForce predicts that in 2026, the Blackwell series will account for 71% of Nvidia’s high-end GPU shipments. Demand remains strong; it’s just that the Rubin series faces deferment risk due to HBM4 certification and thermal management tuning, so in the short term it will rely on Blackwell to keep shouldering the charge.

Looking at the medium to long term, AI compute demand is shifting from “training” to “inference + agents,” and token consumption is set to enter an exponential growth phase. As long as this underlying logic doesn’t change, Nvidia’s growth potential won’t be easily interrupted by macro factors.
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