Citigroup strategists warned last week that long positions in U.S. technology stocks are overly crowded, with the Nasdaq 100 being especially vulnerable to shocks—once any negative catalyst appears, profit-taking and long liquidations could quickly magnify the downside. The S&P 500 has gained 20% since the end of March, while the Nasdaq 100 has surged 33%, remaining nearly overbought for almost six weeks. Goldman Sachs’s risk appetite index has also risen to 1.2, reaching a new high since 2021.

Both Wall Street banks simultaneously cautioned about the risk of a pullback, which hasn’t been common recently. The real suspense now isn’t whether the market is at risk, but when the fuse that triggers that risk will be lit—possibly the FOMC meeting in mid-June, marking the debut of the Washington presentation, or stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls continuing to reinforce rate-hike expectations, or a renewed escalation in the Middle East situation leading oil prices to spike.

Goldman Sachs’s strategy is worth taking note of: short-term returns are trending toward being moderate, but it still maintains a 12-month overweight in U.S. equities and recommends buying on dips—provided the macro benchmark stays in a favorable range. #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票