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#比特币ETF单日净流出7272枚 After four months, Bitcoin has returned to the $60k range, and the entire network is searching for reasons.
One
In early February this year, Bitcoin briefly touched $60k and then rebounded immediately. What will happen this time?
The US stock market has been very strong these past two months, with AI and technology sectors capturing global attention.
Bitcoin is very risky now; the 64,000 level is already halved from its all-time high.
During the more than two months of Nasdaq's rapid rise, Bitcoin has been sideways, and in the past two days, it has plunged directly, quickly falling below 65,000.
After months of silence, unexpectedly, it "pounced" into everyone's view in this way.
Multiple factors triggered the sharp decline, influencing each other:
1 ETF institutions retreat en masse
In the week of June, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of up to $3.4 billion, the largest weekly withdrawal since its launch, involving BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and others.
Since mid-May, there have been 11 consecutive trading days of net outflows, the longest streak since ETF launch, with a total net outflow of $2.4 billion in May, making it the worst month of the year.
2 Saylor sells coins, the "HODL" faith collapses
MicroStrategy sold about 32 BTC at the end of May, the first sale of Bitcoin in nearly five years, used to pay dividends on preferred stock.
Although 32 BTC is a tiny fraction compared to the over 80k BTC holdings, the "signal significance" far exceeds the actual impact.
3 Macro + geopolitical dual pressure
The US-Iran situation has reignited tensions, boosting demand for traditional safe-haven assets, while the crypto market also faces pressure.
Additionally, the Fed's rate cut expectations have once again fallen short, with rising Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets overall.
4 Leverage liquidation amplifies the decline, the "death spiral" in futures and spot markets
Over $1.8 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, the largest scale since February this year, further accelerating the drop.
Second,
Having observed Bitcoin for so long, every time there's a big drop or surge, even passing dogs can't help but poke their heads in to find reasons. Everyone says, this time is different. After passing through one cycle, it seems the same every time.
1 Once the downtrend starts, it’s easy for Europe and America to hit after Asia. Conversely, the same applies to rallies.
If there’s no strong support after the US stock market closes, Asia often opens with a decline or sideways movement, with a more direct emotional transmission. Currently, the fear and greed index is at 23, in extreme fear territory, and under such sentiment, Asia's rebound momentum is weak.
The key level now is $60,000; the market is generally watching this line. If it holds, this wave is a deep correction; if it doesn't, there may be more to go.
2 Risk assets tend to have this characteristic: once a support or resistance level is broken, they tend to continue falling or rising.
Essentially, this is a manifestation of self-fulfilling prophecy in the market.
Initially, these price levels have no physical meaning, but if enough people believe they do, they truly become meaningful.
When the underlying price breaks support, it may trigger several forces simultaneously:
First, stop-loss orders get triggered en masse. Many traders place stop-loss orders below support; once broken, these orders automatically sell, flooding the market with sell orders and pushing prices lower.
Second, leveraged liquidations happen in chains. Those using leverage to go long get forced to close positions once the level is broken; the resulting sell-off drives prices down further, triggering more liquidations, forming a death spiral. This mechanism links futures and spot markets.
Third, psychological signals change. Those hesitant about holding positions see the "support broken" and judge the trend has changed, actively fleeing. Those hoping to buy the dip see the level broken and hold back. With buying disappearing and selling surging, the decline accelerates.
Therefore, the interesting part is: whether technical analysis is correct or not may not matter; what matters is how many people are using it. The more people use it, the more effective these levels become.
This phenomenon exists in other assets as well, representing collective consensus/expectation coordinating market behavior.
3 Every time Bitcoin drops like this, someone always says it will fall to $30,000–$40k or even zero, but it never happens.
Every failed "zero" prediction itself is an information signal.
An asset with no real value support will indeed go to zero in extreme panic—whether in Web2 or Web3, countless aircoins and Ponzi projects have disappeared this way.
But Bitcoin has experienced an 80% drop in 2018, a 75% drop in 2022, and this time from 120k to over 60,000; every "death" prophecy has been proven wrong, with buy orders always catching it at some level.
Behind this are several real supports:
First, the cost floor of miners. Mining has real electricity and hardware costs; when prices fall to levels where miners shut down en masse, supply automatically contracts—this is a physically anchored bottom logic.
Second, the holder structure is hardening. Every sharp decline washes out speculators, leaving believers. On-chain data shows that long-term holders' proportion increases during bear markets, with chips increasingly concentrated in the hands of those who won't sell.
Third, narratives are becoming institutionalized. After ETF launch, BlackRock is selling BTC products, and the "zero" narrative is shrinking because real institutional interests are supporting this asset class.
Repeated non-zeroing itself can become a proof of value; it’s not survivor bias but the operation of a filtering mechanism. Of course, $30,000–$40k is not entirely impossible; each time the zero narrative is shouted, it becomes less credible.
4 When Bitcoin falls, you don’t know why it’s falling; when it rises, you also don’t know why. Assets with such high uncertainty are unique to Bitcoin.
This is an unavoidable philosophical question about Bitcoin.
Undeniably, Bitcoin’s "value" is entirely sustained by consensus—no profit, no dividends, no cash flow; essentially, it’s only valuable because everyone believes it is.
Gold also follows this logic, but it has thousands of years of consensus accumulation. Bitcoin is only over ten years old, and consensus is still being built. Once market confidence wavers, its drops are much worse than gold.
Bitcoin’s price is purely a function of expectations and sentiment; it can rise wildly and fall wildly. But on the flip side, lacking performance support also means no performance ceiling.
Even Nvidia’s valuation growth is ultimately anchored in real profits.
If Bitcoin’s consensus continues to expand, theoretically, there’s no ceiling; in theory…
Rising is consensus, falling is consensus; high risk and high volatility are the costs and opportunities of holding Bitcoin.
1
In early February this year, Bitcoin briefly touched $60k and then rebounded. What will happen this time?
The past two months, the US stock market has been fierce, with AI and tech sectors drawing global attention.
Bitcoin is very risky now; the 64,000 level is cut in half from its all-time high.
During these more than two months of the Nasdaq's rapid run, Bitcoin has been sideways, and in the past two days, it has plunged directly, quickly falling below 65,000 points.
After months of silence, unexpectedly, it "pounced" into everyone's view in this way.
The trigger for the sharp decline is not just one factor, but multiple influences interacting:
1 ETF institutions are retreating en masse
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly net outflow of up to $3.4 billion in the week of June, the largest single-week withdrawal since its launch, involving BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and others.
Since mid-May, it has been outflowing for 11 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since ETF launch.
In May alone, net outflows reached $2.4 billion, making it the worst month of the year.
2 Saylor sells coins, the "HODL only" belief collapses
MicroStrategy sold about 32 BTC at the end of May, the first sale in nearly five years, used to pay preferred stock dividends.
Although 32 BTC is a tiny fraction compared to a holding of over 80k BTC, the "signal significance" far exceeds the actual impact.
3 Macro + geopolitical pressures
The US, Iran, and Israel's tensions have reignited, boosting demand for traditional safe-haven assets, while the crypto market is also under pressure.
Plus, the Fed's rate cut expectations have once again fallen short, with rising treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets.
4 Leverage liquidations amplify the decline, creating a "death spiral" in futures and spot markets
Over $1.8 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated within 24 hours, the largest since February this year, further accelerating the drop.
2
Having observed Bitcoin for so long, every time there's a big drop or surge, even passing dogs can't help but peek through the door crack to find the reason.
Everyone says this time is different. Wait for the cycle to pass—seems like it's always the same.
1 Once the downtrend begins, it’s easy for the market to see Europe and the US hit first, then Asia. Conversely, the same applies to rallies.
If there’s no strong support after US stock market closes, Asia often opens with a decline or sideways movement, with sentiment transmission being quite direct.
Currently, the Fear & Greed Index is at 23, in extreme fear territory, so the momentum for a rebound in Asia is limited.
The key level now is $60k; the market is generally watching this line.
If it holds, this wave is a deep correction; if it doesn’t, there might be more to go.
2 Risk assets tend to have a characteristic: once a support or resistance level is broken, they tend to continue falling or rising.
This is essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy in the market.
Initially, these price levels have no physical significance, but if enough people believe they do, they become meaningful.
When the price breaks support, several forces may be triggered simultaneously:
First, stop-loss orders cluster around these levels. Many traders set stop-losses below support; once broken, these orders trigger, selling pressure pushes the price further down.
Second, leveraged liquidations cascade. Traders using leverage get forced out once the level is broken, and the resulting sell-off drives prices lower, triggering more liquidations in a death spiral.
The link between futures and spot markets operates through this mechanism.
Third, psychological signals change. Hesitant holders see the "support broken," interpret the trend as changing, and exit actively.
Those hoping to buy the dip see the level broken and hold back.
Selling pressure increases, buying diminishes, and the decline accelerates.
So, the interesting part is: whether technical analysis is correct or not may not matter; what matters is how many people are using it.
The more people use it, the more these levels become effective.
This phenomenon exists across other assets as well, representing collective consensus or expectations guiding market behavior.
3 Every time Bitcoin drops like this, someone says it will fall to $30,000–$40k or even zero, but it never happens.
Each failed "zero" prediction is itself a piece of information.
An asset with no real value backing will indeed go to zero in extreme panic—whether in Web2 or Web3, countless aircoins and Ponzi schemes have disappeared this way.
But Bitcoin has experienced an 80% drop in 2018, a 75% drop in 2022, and this time from 120k to over 60,000.
Every "death" prophecy has been proven wrong, and each time, buy orders appear at certain levels to support it.
There are several real supports behind this:
First, the cost floor of miners. Mining involves real electricity and hardware costs; when prices fall to levels where miners shut down en masse, supply automatically contracts—this is a physical anchor for the bottom.
Second, the structure of holders is hardening. Each major crash washes out speculators, leaving believers.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders' proportion increases during bear markets, with chips increasingly concentrated in those who won't sell.
Third, narratives are becoming institutionalized. After ETF approval, BlackRock is selling BTC products, and the "zero" narrative is shrinking because real institutional interests are supporting this asset class.
Repeated failures to go to zero serve as proof of value; it’s not survivor bias but a filtering mechanism in action.
Of course, $30,000–$40k is not impossible; every time the "zero" narrative is called, its credibility diminishes.
4 When Bitcoin falls, you don’t know why it’s falling; when it rises, you don’t know why it’s rising.
Assets with such high uncertainty are unique to Bitcoin.
This is an eternal philosophical question for Bitcoin.
Undeniably, Bitcoin’s "value" relies entirely on consensus—no profit, no dividends, no cash flow; fundamentally, it’s only valuable because everyone believes it is.
Gold follows the same logic, but it has thousands of years of consensus accumulation.
Bitcoin is only over a decade old, and consensus is still being built.
If market confidence wavers, its declines can be much worse than gold.
Bitcoin’s price is purely a function of expectations and sentiment—spectacular rises and falls.
But on the flip side, no earnings support also means no earnings ceiling.
Nvidia’s market cap growth is ultimately anchored in real profits.
If consensus around Bitcoin continues to expand, theoretically, there’s no ceiling—
Rising is based on consensus, falling is based on consensus.
High risk and high volatility are the price of holding Bitcoin, and also the opportunity.