🟡As Sona Approaches, My New Exchange Shock Is Coming‼️

🔴 Political Risks Are at the Wheel, "De-Inflation" Story Is Trash! 🏛️💥:
Since mid-2023, political risks have topped the economic agenda for the first time. With populist moves and early election whispers on the horizon, no one buys the "inflation will fall" fairy tale. Long-term plans are shelved in the market, everyone is fixated on one question: “When do we switch to foreign currency?”
🔴 Foreign Capital Profited and Fled 🏃‍♂️💨:
Global giants are leaving the ship. Since September 2023, JPMorgan, which trusted the TL, pocketed a total return of 55% and completely closed its TL position in the model portfolio by the end of May.
Bank of America (BofA), on the other hand, ended its forward carry trade position in April and exited. They realized their profit, risk is now on us.
🔴 Growth Is Struggling to Survive 📈📉:
Growth is losing speed. The rates of 3.3% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025 were already below our potential. In the first quarter of 2026, we recovered to 2.5%. Moreover, with the Central Bank’s effective interest rate cut to 40% and tightening credit before the holiday, the second quarter will be even harsher. Therefore, 2026 growth will fall to 2.9%.
🔴 Citizens Are Consuming But Balance Cannot Be Achieved 🛒⚖️:
Supposedly, domestic demand was to cool down, but the "Household Consumption" index reached a new, albeit limited, record high. External demand has been pulling growth down for the last six quarters. So, one of the program’s biggest promises, "balancing domestic and external demand," is a complete failure.
🔴 **June 11 Monetary Policy Committee: The Central Bank Might Pass 🛑
Bank credit growth rates have fallen below the average of the last 10 years, so the market is already frozen. Aside from the de-inflationary effect caused by geopolitical risks (US-Iran war), due to domestic political uncertainty, I expect the CBRT to hold interest rates steady at the June 11 meeting with a cautious stance.
🔴 Forex Monster Is Being Fed: Cards Exploded Abroad 💳✈️: There is a black hole in foreign exchange spending, the biggest trigger for the current account deficit. Citizens’ overseas card spending was $2.03T in 2023, but despite bans and restrictions, it soared to $21.9 billion in 2025. In 2026, we are still at a monthly $2 billion barrier. We are draining money abroad.
🔴 Tourism Bubble Is Not Popping, Revenues Are Eroding 🏖️🚨:
While we spend abroad, foreigners are not leaving money inside. Foreign card spending in Turkey hit a five-year low in February (1.2 billion dollars), only rising to 1.7 billion dollars in April. The worst part: in April 2026, the number of foreign visitors plummeted by 9.4%. The so-called "historic peak" period in tourism is over, decline has begun.
⚠️ Final Word: The upcoming period will be one where we obsessively question the "sustainability" of every price and every size in the economy. I wish endless ease to all stakeholders trying to steer the ship through the storm; because our job is more difficult than ever!
#dolar # Interest #ekonomi # Crisis #EarlyElection