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Preview: The first Non-Farm Payrolls report of the "Wash Era" will be released tonight at 8:30 PM
The market generally expects that the U.S. will add about 85k non-farm jobs in May, significantly lower than the average of about 150k in the previous two months; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.
Several institutions are more conservative in their forecasts for this non-farm data.
Goldman Sachs predicts only 60k new jobs in May, stating that their high-frequency employment indicators have weakened;
Ernst & Young estimates 50k new jobs and believes there is slight upward pressure on the unemployment rate;
Vanguard Chief Economist Adam Schickling expects only 20k new jobs, believing that unusually warm and dry weather from January to April boosted employment data during those months, and this effect may partially reverse in May.
From a monetary policy perspective, if the non-farm data roughly meets expectations, the Federal Reserve is likely to hold steady at the meeting on June 16-17.
Ernst & Young Chief Economist Gregory Daco said that a stable labor market combined with still-high inflation could increase the likelihood of the Fed issuing a more hawkish, dual-sided policy statement at the next meeting, and policymakers may emphasize that if inflation remains sticky, rate hikes will still be an available tool.