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Preview: The first Non-Farm Payrolls report of the "Wash Era" will be released tonight at 8:30 PM
BlockBeats News, June 5 — Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May non-farm employment data. The market generally expects that the U.S. added around 85,000 new non-farm jobs in May, which is significantly lower than the average of about 150,000 over the previous two months; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.
Several institutions are even more cautious about this non-farm report. Goldman Sachs expects May’s added employment to be only 60,000, saying that the high-frequency employment indicators it tracks have already weakened; Ernst & Young expects added employment of 50,000 and believes there is slight upward pressure on the unemployment rate; Vanguard Chief Economist Adam Schickling expects only 20,000 in new jobs, saying that the unusually warm and dry weather at the beginning of the year boosted employment data from January to April, and that this effect may partially reverse in May.
From the perspective of monetary policy, if the non-farm data broadly meets expectations, the Federal Reserve will most likely hold steady at its June 16-17 meeting. Ernst & Young Chief Economist Gregory Daco said that with the labor market stable and inflation still high, it could increase the likelihood that the Fed issues a more hawkish, two-way policy statement at the next meeting; policymakers may emphasize that if inflation is stickier, rate hikes remain an available policy tool.