With the roadshow data, how does Wall Street now view SpaceX?

Original Title: With Roadshow Data, How Wall Street Now Views SpaceX

Author: Rhythm BlockBeats

Source:

Reprint: Mars Finance

$135 per share, 555.6 million shares, $1.77 trillion.

SpaceX has pegged its IPO price here. According to the S-1/A filed with the SEC on June 3 and the FWP roadshow materials submitted on June 4, the company plans to issue 555.6 million Class A common shares at $135 each, with shares listed on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker SPCX. After underwriting discounts and issuance costs, the company expects to raise approximately $74.4 billion in net proceeds, and if underwriters exercise all options, about $85.7 billion.

The real question posed to the market by the roadshow isn’t “How much is a rocket company worth?” Instead, SpaceX repeatedly emphasizes another point in the materials: space transportation, satellite connectivity, and AI computing power are being integrated into the same balance sheet.

According to the same FWP roadshow materials, SpaceX claims to be the only company building space, connectivity, and AI infrastructure simultaneously. The space division aims to reduce launch costs, Starlink is responsible for extending connectivity to ground, sea, air, and mobile networks, while the AI division consolidates xAI, Grok, X, and Colossus computing clusters into one narrative.

The data they present is substantial. According to the roadshow, since 2023, SpaceX has handled over 80% of global orbital insertions, with about 650 launches, operating over 9,600 Starlink satellites, with approximately 10.3 million Starlink users across 164 countries and regions. Grok and X have about 550 million monthly active users, X posts around 350 million times daily, and AI infrastructure’s nominal power consumption exceeds 1GW.

This is where Wall Street’s biggest disagreement lies.

SpaceX says it is selling infrastructure. Skeptics argue it’s packaging infrastructure, AI, and Elon Musk’s personal premium together for sale.

Let’s start with the most solid part of the roadshow. Connectivity is now the closest to a “public company business.” According to the materials, revenue from Connectivity in 2025 is projected at $11.4 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 billion, higher than the $7.6 billion revenue and $3.8 billion adjusted EBITDA expected in 2024. The Space division is forecasted to generate $4.1 billion in revenue in 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $700 million. The AI division is expected to bring in $3.2 billion in revenue, but with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.2 billion.

Combined, these three segments paint a very uneven picture of SpaceX. Starlink is profitable, rockets provide deployment capacity, and AI is burning cash but offering valuation flexibility.

According to the roadshow, SpaceX’s total revenue in 2025 is projected at $18.7 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 billion, but GAAP net loss is $4.9 billion. Capital expenditures are set to rise from $4.4 billion in 2023 to $11.2 billion in 2024, and then to $20.7 billion in 2025. By Q1 2026, the company still reports a GAAP net loss of $4.3 billion.

In stock market terms, this isn’t a mature profit stock. It’s a stock that has sold future infrastructure control rights to the public market early.

Wall Street’s initial reaction is to acknowledge that the story has changed.

Fund manager Mike Alves wrote that investors shouldn’t focus solely on the $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion headline valuation; the real question is whether SpaceX is building the infrastructure layer of the next economy. Shaun Davies, associate finance professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, describes SpaceX as a hybrid of aerospace, communications infrastructure, defense technology, and AI. Scott Pace, director of the George Washington University Space Policy Institute, aligns more with the roadshow narrative, believing growth is driven by new ways of combining communication, data, and AI through space.

This is the core logic of the bulls. Don’t compare SpaceX to Boeing, AT&T, or traditional aerospace companies. It’s selling an infrastructure entry point that’s difficult to replicate.

Reuters mentions that at least one large institutional investor in SpaceX privately does not compare it to Boeing or AT&T but views it more like Palantir, GE Vernova, or Vertiv—companies revalued based on AI infrastructure. PitchBook analyst Franco Granda directly states that investors are paying a platform premium today, betting on a future infrastructure monopoly economy.

But this valuation approach has its own awkwardness. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio is about 110 times 2025 revenue estimates, even cheaper than Palantir on some metrics. According to S&P Capital IQ data, based on a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion market cap and trailing 12-month revenue as of March 31, 2026, SpaceX’s P/S ratio is roughly 90 to 103, exceeding all seven major tech giants and significantly higher than Tesla’s approximate 16 times P/S at that time.

Bullish investors accept this price because they don’t see SpaceX as just a rocket company. Bears can’t accept it either, because SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company.

This valuation divergence becomes clearer from here.

The first line is $780 billion. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens’ initial valuation estimate for SpaceX is $780 billion, less than half the IPO target valuation. Owens’ concern centers on the AI business; he believes Grok is not yet a leading AI lab, and technologies like orbital data centers are unproven, so investors might find safer entry points after the IPO.

The second line is between $1.22 trillion and $1.29 trillion. NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran’s valuation model, based on limited financial data at the time, gives a baseline of $1.22 trillion, with a median of $1.29 trillion after 1,000 simulations. He admits SpaceX is an engineering miracle with significant competitive advantages, but his bottom line is clear: at a $1.75 trillion or even $2 trillion valuation, buyers have little room for upside.

The third line is $1.25 trillion. Scottish Mortgage, managed by Baillie Gifford, holds SpaceX at a valuation of $1.25 trillion as of March 31, 2026, emphasizing that the valuation is based on verifiable transactions, not media rumors. This figure is interesting. Scottish Mortgage is a long-term holder; it’s not bearish on SpaceX but also didn’t follow directly to the $1.75 trillion.

Above that is SpaceX’s own public market valuation of $1.77 trillion.

These four figures together represent the current reality of Wall Street’s view of SpaceX.

It’s not a case of shouting buy and sell simultaneously. It’s more like a price band: $780 billion is the conservative anchor from fundamentals; $1.22 trillion to $1.29 trillion reflects Damodaran’s narrative and cash flow trade-offs; $1.25 trillion is the holding mark for institutional positions; and $1.77 trillion is the price SpaceX is ready to let the public market accept.

Social media trading sentiment is even more direct. On X, discussion accounts like Ticker Wire, Surmount, VirtualBacon focus less on discounted cash flow and more on fundraising at $75 billion, valuation at $1.75 trillion, potential index buying, and the IPO prospects for OpenAI and Anthropic after SpaceX. They treat SpaceX as a liquidity event, not a company to be carefully dissected in Excel.

Scott Sacknoff’s warning echoes this. Scott Sacknoff, manager of the SPADE Defense Index, believes SpaceX’s IPO has pushed mainstream investor enthusiasm toward near-rational exuberance, with space stocks up 60% to 100% this year. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, those who might truly profit are more like traders than long-term holders.

Traders focus on supply and demand; long-term investors focus on valuation realization paths.

There are three checkpoints along this path.

The first is Starlink. It must continue converting user growth, ARPU, mobile connectivity, and enterprise/government clients into cash flow. SpaceX’s roadshow projects Connectivity into a $1.6 trillion potential market, with Starlink Broadband accounting for $870 billion and Starlink Mobile for $740 billion. This market is sizable, but the public market will prioritize revenue quality over TAM.

The second checkpoint is AI. SpaceX’s roadshow projects AI’s long-term opportunity at $26.5 trillion and proposes deploying AI satellites starting in 2028. Reuters Breakingviews on April 24 called this “planetary-scale absurdity,” reasoning that a $28.5 trillion total addressable market exceeds one-fifth of global GDP. It’s not that AI lacks value, but SpaceX has placed valuation flexibility on the hardest-to-verify segment.

The third checkpoint is governance discount. According to SpaceX’s S-1/A, after this offering, Musk will control about 82.4% of voting shares. Class B shares have 10 votes per share, Class A has 1. The New York City Comptroller, New York State Comptroller, and CalPERS CEO sent a public letter on May 13 demanding SpaceX adopt one-share-one-vote or set a sunset clause of no more than 7 years for super voting rights.

Kiplinger’s Mike Alves offers a bullish interpretation. He believes that in a typical company, such control might be a veto point, but the market might see “gaining exposure” as more important than governance. The subtext is that investors aren’t buying governance rights but options to keep Musk at the helm.

This roadshow rewrites SpaceX from a rocket company into an infrastructure conglomerate. Wall Street now needs to decide how much of this is real cash flow, how much is future technology roadmap, and how much is Musk’s premium.

If only considering the roadshow, SpaceX has told a very complete story. Rockets reduce costs, Starlink connects users, AI integrates computing demand, and orbital computing raises the ceiling.

If considering Wall Street’s reactions, another story is equally complete.

Morningstar is waiting for a lower price, Damodaran for a major correction, Scottish Mortgage has not marked its holdings to the IPO target price, PitchBook and some institutions are willing to justify platform premiums, trading accounts are watching potential index buying and short-term liquidity, and pension systems are monitoring control rights.

SpaceX’s rockets are undisputed. The controversy lies in how much investors are willing to pay for the entire sky behind those rockets.