6.5 Morning Market Analysis

The expectation of rate cuts continues to be pushed back, and the high actual interest rates suppress the valuation of risk assets. The resilience of the US dollar index persists, combined with stagnant stablecoin supply and low on-chain activity, leading to a lack of incremental off-chain funds, and the market is deeply stuck in a stockpile game pattern.

On the technical side, the weekly chart breaks below the MA20, confirming a medium-term weakening trend, while the daily chart is trading below the MA60 and MA120, showing a bearish arrangement. Volume and price show characteristics of “declining volume on decline, shrinking volume on rebound,” confirming the dominance of the bears. The short-term KDJ shows a death cross divergence, and the J value has not entered the oversold zone; MACD remains below the zero line with negative extension, with no bottom divergence signals, indicating bearish momentum still has room to release.

The main trend is a continuation of the weekly adjustment, with a strategy focused on rebound-based short positions, avoiding contrarian bottom fishing. The first support below is at the 60,000 level; a break below points to the dense area around 56,000. A bullish restart requires the weekly to recover above MA20 and the daily to stabilize above MA60; previous rises are only considered rebounds.

Trading Recommendations
Enter short positions in the 63,000-63,500 range, targeting 61,000-60,000.