XRP is sitting on a dangerous line.

After losing its recent consolidation range, price has dropped back into the major macro support zone around $1.12–$1.17 — the same area where buyers defended the market in February.

But the structure still looks heavy.

XRP is trading below every major EMA:

20 EMA: $1.298
50 EMA: $1.353
100 EMA: $1.431
200 EMA: $1.633

That means every recovery attempt is running straight into resistance.

The first major test is $1.30, followed by $1.35, $1.43, and the bigger Fibonacci resistance near $1.65.

Until XRP reclaims that EMA cluster, bulls do not have control.

The bearish structure is still clear:

Lower highs.
Lower lows.
Broken range support.
Price below the 0.236 Fib at $1.653.
Liquidity building under current lows.

From an ICT / smart money view, sellers are still pressing. Recent recovery attempts failed, buyer strength looks weak, and no strong bullish displacement has appeared yet.

RSI is also flashing extreme weakness at 23.4.

That is deeply oversold, so a relief bounce is possible.

But oversold does not mean reversal.

The real battleground is now $1.12–$1.17.

If XRP holds this zone, price could attempt a bounce toward $1.30 → $1.35 → $1.43 → $1.65.

If $1.12 breaks, the risk shifts fast toward a psychological breakdown below $1.10 and a possible liquidity sweep under February lows.

For now, sellers remain in control.

XRP needs to reclaim $1.30–$1.35 to change the tone.

Lose $1.12, and the macro breakdown gets much harder to ignore.