Bitcoin is showing a very short-term, fragile effort to bounce, but it is currently locked in a critical wrestling match with sellers.

​After plunging over 12% earlier this week and tapping an intraday low of around $61,500, Bitcoin managed a quick relief rally back up to the $63,000 – $64,000 zone. However, it is experiencing heavy resistance trying to keep that momentum.
​Here is a breakdown of what the on-chain data and market structure are telling us right now:

​1. The "Dead Cat Bounce" vs. Local Bottom Signs
​Seller Exhaustion Sinyal: On-chain data shows that roughly 50.1% of all circulating Bitcoin is currently sitting in a floating loss (since dropping from its previous highs). Historically, when the network's supply in loss crosses above 50%, it strongly correlates with cyclical macro bottoms (like in 2015, 2018, and 2022) because sellers finally run out of steam.
​The Immediate Risk: Analysts point out that while this shows we are likely in a broad bottoming zone, it doesn't mean the immediate pain is over. If Bitcoin cannot firmly hold above the $62,000 level over the next couple of days, the risk of a deeper flush down to test structural support at $60,000 remains highly likely.

​2. Heavy Pressure Blocks the Upside
​The current bounce is hitting a massive wall due to a few overlapping market pressures:
​Massive Liquidations: Over $1.1 billion to $1.76 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out during this crash. A cascade that large heavily damages near-term buying confidence.
​Institutional Exits: Institutional interest has cooled significantly. Massive outflow spikes from spot Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with data showing entities like BlackRock shifting thousands of BTC to Coinbase Prime, are keeping a lid on any immediate breakout.
​Macro Environment: Capital has temporarily been rotating out of crypto risk assets and moving toward AI-linked tech equities and safer macro havens.

​The Verdict
​Yes, BTC is trying to bounce off the $61,500 floor, but it is a highly tentative technical rebound rather than a full structural reversal. Keep a very close eye on the $62,000 level; holding it keeps a move back toward $65,000 on the table, while losing it means the bears are taking us down to test $60,000.