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Micron Technology drops nearly 8%, is it a good time to buy the dip?

Affected by Broadcom's latest earnings guidance falling below expectations, triggering a collective sell-off in the semiconductor sector, Micron Technology closed sharply lower, with a closing price of $996.00, down 7.74% for the day, a decline of $83.57, with a total trading volume of $55.19B, a turnover rate of 4.87%, and a trading volume of 54.92 million shares. The total market capitalization is approximately $1.12 trillion. As of pre-market on June 5, the stock continued to fall by 2.44%, quoted at $971.70.

Why did this drop happen? Could it be a trend reversal?

The Little Wealth God believes this correction is not due to deteriorating fundamentals but is a market emotional reaction to Broadcom's weak AI revenue guidance and SK Hynix's plans to list in the U.S., representing a typical "profit-taking in the AI storage sector." Notably, Micron has secured a supply contract for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for the full year of 2026, with Q2 revenue up 196% year-over-year, DRAM revenue accounting for 79%, with AI server demand contributing over 80% of the growth. The current stock price adjustment is a rational rebalancing after high valuation levels, not a trend reversal.

Technical indicator analysis: Overbought correction, volatility converging

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Previously climbed above 78 into overbought territory, now falling back with the price into the neutral-strong zone of 55–60, indicating short-term selling pressure is easing, and momentum is not exhausted.

MACD: On the daily chart, the MACD histogram has shifted from positive to negative, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, forming a short-term death cross, but the DIFF line remains above zero, indicating the mid-term trend has not reversed.

Bollinger Bands: The stock price has sharply fallen from the upper band (around $1,080) to near the middle band (about $1,020), with the bandwidth narrowing, signaling the market is entering a consolidation phase, and volatility compression often precedes a directional breakout.

Moving averages: The stock price remains significantly above the 200-day moving average (about $780), with the 5-day and 20-day moving averages in a bearish alignment, but the 50-day moving average (about $950) acts as a key support/resistance level. Currently, the price has retreated to near this line.

Key support and resistance levels:

Core support:

$970–980: The confluence zone of the June 3 low and the lower Bollinger Band, serving as the last line of defense for the short-term bulls. A volume-driven break below could see a test of the $900 psychological level.

$950: The 50-day moving average, representing the mid-term trend lifeline, with strong institutional interest in this zone.

Core resistance:

$1020–1030: The Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level intersecting with the middle Bollinger Band, serving as the first resistance for a short-term rebound.

$1050–1060: The previous high plateau and the 200-day moving average support level. Breaking through this zone would confirm a trend recovery.

$1080: The historical high, re-establishing above this level could open a new upward space.

Market outlook: The long-term narrative for AI storage remains unchanged; short-term awaits earnings confirmation

Demand side: AI server demand for HBM continues to accelerate, with each AI server's memory capacity increasing 5–8 times compared to traditional servers. As one of only three global HBM suppliers, Micron has signed long-term agreements with key clients like Nvidia and AMD, with capacity utilization exceeding 95%.

Supply side: Although Samsung and SK Hynix are expanding production, the progress of HBM4 mass production is delayed, and substantial competition is unlikely before the second half of 2026.

Valuation logic: The current P/E ratio (TTM) is 46.59, far above the industry average, but the market views Micron as an "AI infrastructure stock" rather than a traditional cyclical stock. Its valuation is anchored on an expected compound annual growth rate of over 50% for HBM revenue over the next three years.

Key dates: The fiscal quarter earnings report will be released on June 24, 2026. If revenue and gross margin (Q2 at 74%) beat expectations, the stock could recover quickly; if not, a deep correction may ensue.

Trading suggestions:

Overall, today's sharp decline is mainly a short covering. If the price does not break support levels, it can be seen as an opportunity for accumulation or adding positions.

Conservative investors:

Do not chase the high now; wait for the $980 support to be confirmed. If the price stabilizes and volume breaks above $1,050, consider gradually building positions with targets of $1,150–$1,200.

Aggressive investors:

If the price falls below $970 and there is no panic volume, it can be viewed as a "misprice" opportunity, with two-stage accumulation in the $950–$960 range, with a stop-loss below $920.