From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌ 1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main trend (Daily timeframe): Since the high point of 82,448 on May 10, the medium-term downtrend is evolving into a "Super Bear Market." The high point of 78,002 on May 26 became the starting point of this round of super decline, followed by a five-wave plunge to 72,450. After an A-B-C correction rebound to 74,154, a series of three-wave crashes X-Y-Z dropped to 63,997. A sharp rebound occurred on June 4 to 65,925, but early on June 5, it retreated again to around 62,800. From May 26 to June 5, the total decline reached -19.5% (-15,202), and the market is in a state of extreme panic.
Short-term trend (Daily timeframe): The movement on June 4 shows an extreme structure of "rising sharply—pullback—cliff-like plunge—V-shaped rebound." The morning surged from 64,530 to 65,925, then at 08:00, a cliff-like crash dropped to 61,545 (intraday low). In the afternoon, a V-shaped rebound brought it back to 64,530 to close, with a daily fluctuation of 7.1% (4,380). On June 5, it continued to fall to 62,800, indicating that resistance above 65,000 is very heavy, and the short-term trend remains a free-fall decline.
Dow conclusion: The main trend is downward and accelerating sharply; the short-term trend is a free-fall decline. The V-shaped rebound on June 4 failed to change the downward trend. The early rebound on June 5 shows that the bears still dominate. Resistance at 65,000 is a key short-term level; if the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term decline may pause; if the rebound is blocked at 64,000 and falls below 61,545, the downtrend continues, targeting 60,000–61,000.
2. Chan Theory (缠论)
Structure of fractals: On the daily chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top fractals: Found at 78,002 (5/26), 76,022 (5/27), 74,462 (5/28), 74,222 (5/29), 74,154 (5/31), 73,974 (6/1), 71,314 (6/2), 67,411 (6/3), 65,925 (6/4), etc. The top fractal prices descend stepwise from 78,002 to 65,925, with the speed of decline accelerating sharply, indicating that bearish forces are fully erupting.
Bottom fractals: Found at 75,555 (5/26), 74,114 (5/27), 72,450 (5/28), 72,384 (5/29), 73,118 (5/30), 73,288 (5/31), 70,566 (6/1), 66,109 (6/2), 63,997 (6/3), 61,545 (6/4), etc. The bottom fractal prices continue to decline, with the low of 61,545 on June 4 creating a new stage low, indicating the market has entered a supportless decline state.
Bi (笔) and line segments: From the top fractal at 78,002 to the bottom fractal at 72,450, a downward stroke of -5,552 is formed. Upward strokes: +1,772 (72,450 → 74,222), downward strokes: -1,838 (74,222 → 72,384), upward stroke: +1,770 (72,384 → 74,154). Then, wave X crashes -3,588 (74,154 → 70,566), wave Y crashes -4,457 (70,566 → 66,109), wave Z crashes -3,414 (67,411 → 63,997). On June 4, from 63,997, a rebound to 65,925 forms an upward stroke +1,928, but early on June 5, it fell back to 62,800, indicating that this upward stroke may have ended. Currently, the downward stroke from 65,925 has extended to 62,800, with a decline of -3,125, showing strong momentum.
Central zones: The support zones at 74,000–75,000, 72,800–74,000, and 66,000–68,000 have been completely broken. The sharp declines on June 4-5 broke below 62,000, and a new downtrend center has formed in the 61,000–65,000 range, with 61,545 as the new stage low.
Chan conclusion: The downward strokes of -5,552, -1,838, -3,588, -4,457, -3,414, and -3,125 show that bearish forces are erupting comprehensively, and the market has entered a supportless decline. All previous bottom structures have been completely destroyed. Currently, in the extension phase of the downward stroke, no termination signals have appeared. Short-term focus is on whether an effective bottom fractal can form near 61,545; if formed, the downward stroke may end. If it directly falls below 61,000, the downward extension risks are very high, with targets at 60,000.
3. Wave Theory (Elliott Wave)
Based on the daily wave structure, the movement since the high of 78,002 on May 26 is divided into wave patterns:
Wave 1 (Crash): 78,002 → 75,555 (5/26), -2,447. Panic selling.
Wave 2 (Weak rebound): 75,555 → 76,022 (5/27), +467. Rebound about 19.1% of Wave 1.
Wave 3 (Main decline wave): 76,022 → 74,114 (5/27), -1,908. About 0.78 of Wave 1.
Wave 4 (Minor rebound): 74,114 → 74,462 (5/28), +348. About 18.3% of Wave 3.
Wave 5 (Extended decline): 74,462 → 72,450 (5/28), -2,012. About 0.82 of Wave 1, completing the five-wave decline structure.
Wave A (V-shaped rebound): 72,450 → 74,222 (5/29), +1,772.
Wave B (Deep correction): 74,222 → 72,384 (5/29), -1,838.
Wave C (Rebound to previous high): 72,384 → 74,154 (5/31), +1,770. Wave C is nearly equal in length to Wave A, at 99.9%.
Wave X (New decline begins): 74,154 → 70,566 (6/1), -3,588.
Wave Y (Extended decline): 70,566 → 66,109 (6/2), -4,457.
Wave Z (Accelerated decline): 67,411 → 63,997 (6/3), -3,414. The X-Y-Z three-wave crash totals -11,459.
Wave AA (V-shaped rebound): 63,997 → 65,925 (6/4), +1,928. Rebound strength about 56.5% of Wave Z.
Wave BB (Continued decline): 65,925 → 62,800 (inferred on 6/5), -3,125. The decline in Wave BB is close to 162% of Wave AA’s rise, indicating very weak rebound and dominant bearish forces.
Current: ~62,800.
Wave conclusion: After five-wave decline + A-B-C correction + X-Y-Z crash + weak rebound in Wave AA, Wave BB’s strong decline indicates the market is in the third extension of a super bear market. Wave BB may not be finished; if it cannot quickly recover above 65,000, Wave CC will be brutal, targeting 60,000–61,000.
4. Volume-Price Relationship (Volume-Price Analysis)
Overall volume-price features: On June 4, there was a "volume surge with intense volatility." According to CME futures data, volume was 4,257, and open interest was 25,810, showing expansion. The intraday fluctuation on June 4 reached 7.1% (65,925 - 61,545), indicating fierce battle between bulls and bears.
Key volume-price nodes:
- Morning of June 4: Surge to 65,925 from 64,530, showing slight buying above 65,000, then rapid retreat.
- 08:00 on June 4: Cliff crash from 65,925 to 61,545, with a decline of about -4,380, indicating panic selling.
- Afternoon of June 4: V-shaped rebound from 61,545 to 64,530, showing large buy volume at low levels.
- Morning of June 5: Rebound to 62,800, showing resistance above 65,000 is very heavy, and rebound failed.
Recent movement: From 65,925 oscillating down to 62,800, market awaits direction in the 62,000–65,000 range.
Volume-price conclusion: The surge on June 4 with 7.1% fluctuation shows large buy volume near 61,500, but resistance above 65,000 is very heavy. The rebound on June 5 failed again, indicating both sides are waiting for a direction. If subsequent rebound to 64,000–65,000 shows volume stagnation, it confirms bearish dominance; if it breaks below 61,545 with volume, a new crash is likely.
5. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume Profile: Over the past 10 days, the Point of Control (POC) is around 73,000–74,000, the most active trading zone for bulls and bears. Currently, the price at 62,800 is well below POC by over 10,000, indicating the market has fallen into an extremely discounted zone from value area, with the discount rapidly increasing.
Current analysis: Price at 62,800 is over 10,000 below POC, below the value zone, with a large deviation. In order flow theory, breaking below POC indicates short-term dominance of sellers, and the market has fallen from a fair valuation zone into an extremely discounted state. If it cannot quickly return above POC, the risk of further decline is very high.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 77,000–78,000: Resistance HVN (completely broken)
- 74,000–75,000: Core resistance HVN (broken)
- 72,000–73,000: Mid resistance HVN (broken)
- 70,000–71,000: Mid resistance HVN (6/1 trading cluster, broken)
- 66,000–67,000: Mid resistance HVN (6/2-3 trading cluster, broken)
- 64,000–65,000: Current resistance HVN (6/4 trading cluster)
- 61,500–62,500: Current support HVN (low point of 6/4 crash)
Delta analysis: CME futures data shows that during the crash on June 4, Delta turned significantly negative, confirming active selling dominance. During the afternoon rebound, Delta turned positive sharply, confirming large active buy volume near 61,500. During the early morning of June 5, Delta turned negative again, indicating persistent selling pressure. Currently, Delta MA12 is negative, showing buyers are weak and sellers still dominate.
Order flow conclusion: Price below POC at 73,000+ with Delta negative indicates short-term sellers are fully in control, and the market is in an extremely discounted zone. Resistance at 64,000 and 65,000 are key HVNs. If Delta remains positive with volume breakthrough at these levels, it may recover above 67,000; if Delta stays negative and price falls below 61,545, the risk of dropping to 60,000 is very high.
6. Price Action (Price Behavior)
Support and Resistance levels:
- Strong resistance: 82,448 (stage high), 78,002 (5/26 high), 74,154 (5/31 high), 72,450 (5/28 low, now resistance)
- Key resistance: 70,000, 68,000, 66,000, 65,000 (6/4 rebound high), 64,000
- Key support: 62,000, 61,545 (6/4 crash low, recent low), 61,000, 60,000 (psychological level)
Candlestick patterns:
- June 4: A large bullish candle with very long upper and lower shadows (body near zero, upper shadow 1,395, lower shadow 2,985), from 64,530 high to 61,545 low, then rebounded to 64,530, indicating fierce battle and forming a "Doji" pattern, hinting at a decision point.
- June 4 08:00: A large bearish candle with very long lower shadow (body about -4,380, lower shadow 2,985), from 65,925 crash to 61,545, showing panic selling followed by large buy volume, forming a "Hammer" bullish pattern.
- June 5 early: A volume-declining pullback from 64,530 to 62,800, indicating failed rebound and renewed bearish dominance.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: Operating in a free-fall downward channel (connecting 74,154 and 61,545 with downward pressure line).
- Mid-term: The decline since May 22 at 77,829 is accelerating sharply, forming a new downward trend line connecting 78,002, 74,154, and 65,925.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, the market is in a critical zone between the lower part of the free-fall channel and the support at 61,545. 62,000 is a key dividing line: a volume breakout above may temporarily halt the decline toward 64,000; resistance at 61,545, then 61,000, and 60,000 are supports if the decline continues.
Overall assessment: Dow signals a main downward trend accelerating sharply, with the short-term trend a free-fall. Key levels are 65,000 (up) and 61,545 (down). Chan analysis shows the downward strokes are intensifying, indicating full bearish force, with all bottom structures destroyed. Wave analysis suggests a five-wave decline + A-B-C correction + X-Y-Z crash + weak rebound in Wave AA, with Wave BB showing strong downward momentum, indicating a super bear market third wave extension. Volume-price features show a surge on June 4 (7.1%) and a rebound on June 5, with POC at 73,000+ and price below POC, Delta MA12 negative, and candlestick patterns of "Doji," "Hammer," and "Volume decline," all pointing to a very bearish short-term outlook.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If price near 61,545–62,000 shows continuous shrinking volume, bottom fractal formation, and Delta turns positive, consider small long positions targeting 64,000 → 65,000 with a stop at 60,800.
- Bearish scenario: If a rebound to 64,000–65,000 forms a top fractal with volume decline, confirming Wave BB failure and Wave CC decline, consider short positions targeting 61,000 → 60,000 with a stop at 65,500.
Current state: At 62,800, in a low-volume, post-crash oscillation zone, extremely bearish in the short term. Not recommended to buy the dip on the left side. Wait for a rebound near 64,000 to confirm resistance before shorting, or look for clear bottom structures (double bottom, head and shoulders bottom) before going long.