Recently, I've seen a bunch of people watching on-chain large transfers and exchange hot and cold wallet movements, then start shouting "Smart money is here" and preparing to follow... I want to pour cold water on that: large amounts ≠ direction, often it's just changing addresses, risk control isolation, or simply hedging to move positions. Think carefully beforehand: is he building a position to catch volatility, or is he matching spot/derivatives to reduce exposure? Not seeing the other side of the trade is like only looking at half the bill.

I usually check casually: whether there's an opposite contract position change during the same period, whether addresses from the same cluster have dispersed transfers, or if they immediately split into multiple sub-addresses after entering an exchange... In other words, genuine position building is usually more "slow" and "dirty," while hedging is more "fast" and "organized." I tend to be someone calculating errors, not chasing addresses. For now, don't let impermanence losses be mistaken for gains.