6.5 Morning Analysis

The expectation of rate cuts continues to be pushed back, with actual interest rates remaining high, putting pressure on risk asset valuations. The US dollar index remains resilient, and a strong dollar environment persists. The supply of stablecoins has stagnated, on-chain activity and exchange net inflows are at low levels, and off-chain incremental funds are scarce, leaving the market in a stock game pattern.

On the technical side, the weekly chart has broken below the MA20, confirming a shift to a weakening medium-term trend. The daily chart is trading below the MA60 and MA120, showing a bearish alignment. In terms of volume and price relationship, recent performance shows declining volume during rebounds and increasing volume during declines, indicating a dominance of bearish capital behavior.

Regarding short-term indicators, the KDJ three lines have formed a death cross below the 50 axis and are diverging, with the J value continuing to decline without entering the oversold zone, suggesting bearish momentum still has room to release. For MACD, the fast and slow lines are below the zero axis, and the histogram continues to be negative, with no bottom divergence or golden cross signals.

The main trend is a continuation of the weekly-level adjustment, with a strategy focused on rebound-based shorting, and it is not advisable to buy the dip against the trend. The key support below is around the 60,000 USD psychological level; further breakdown points to the previous round of concentrated positions near 56,000 USD. The prerequisites for a bullish trend restart are: the weekly close back above the MA20 and the daily close above the MA60. Until then, all upward movements should be viewed as rebounds.

Trading suggestion: 64,300-64,800 buy zone, target 62,300-62,800. #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票