Dow Jones rises ≠ Cryptocurrency must rise; most of the time they move in the same direction, but they often exhibit opposite trends.

1. High probability of moving together (most common)

The Dow increases due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, liquidity easing, and rising market risk appetite, with institutional idle funds flowing out of bonds and cash, some of which flow into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, causing prices to rise accordingly; cryptocurrencies are high-volatility risk assets, and their gains are usually much larger than those of the Dow.
During easing cycles (before rate cuts are implemented), the correlation is strongest, often between 0.5 and 0.8.

2. Dow rises, crypto prices fall (high-frequency divergence)

1. Funds shift: The US stock bull market attracts capital, funds withdraw from cryptocurrencies and increase holdings in US stocks, with the Dow hitting new highs while Bitcoin declines (repeatedly in 2026, as US stocks keep reaching new highs and BTC continues to decline);

2. US Treasury yields rise: The Dow increases due to corporate earnings growth, with US Treasury yields rising in tandem; high interest rates suppress crypto valuations, causing prices to fall;

3. Negative crypto news: Tightening US regulations, large ETF redemptions, exchange negative news— even if US stocks surge, cryptocurrencies decline independently.

3. Dow falls, crypto prices rise against the trend (low probability)

Global geopolitical crises, systemic panic in US stocks, emergency liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve to stabilize the market, funds abandoning stocks and buying BTC as digital gold for hedging, resulting in opposite trends.