Bitcoin is currently 64,000. After every big drop, you can always find a bunch of friends with heavy positions who go bottom-fishing and get trapped. They want to buy at the lowest point and bet on doubling their money, but in the end they get deeply trapped and are forced to sell and exit. Now that BTC’s long-term cycle is heading south on the chart, any small bounce in the short term is only an oversold rebound/repair. Never mistake a short-term recovery for a reversal into a bull market. In crypto trading, making big money comes from trading with the flow, while losing big money comes from going against the trend with heavy positions. If you can’t understand the trend, open fewer positions. It’s better to miss a round of short-term profit than to blindly go all-in and gamble on the bottom. Protecting your principal is always more important than catching a single explosive surge. Doing things slowly and earning steadily is the long-term strategy.

On the daily K-line, yesterday closed with a small-bodied doji bearish candle, and the whole day probed down to a low of 61,344. On the chart, all EMA lines are arranged downward; the short-term 15- and 30-period moving averages firmly press at 71,400 and 74,080. The price has continuously broken below the lower Bollinger Band at 65,607 and is trading in a downward Bollinger Band channel. The MACD indicator’s DIF and DEA are both below the zero line, and the green histogram continues to expand, showing that southbound momentum is still strong. The trend on the daily timeframe is clearly bearish: heavy moving averages overhead form major stage resistance. A quick reversal is unlikely in the short term; there is only technical rebound space after oversold conditions. The primary resistance area for the rebound is around 67,000.

On the four-hour K-line, the market appears to have stopped falling and closed slightly higher in a small positive candle. MACD shows signs of a mild bottom divergence and recovery. Price is running above the 4-hour lower Bollinger Band at 61,353. The Bollinger Bands keep opening downward, and the large-range southbound structure has not changed. All short-cycle EMA lines have turned and are pointing down, forming a resistance band. The first resistance is 67,000, and the second is 70,000. The MACD green histogram has shortened compared with the earlier period; DIF is nearing DEA and there are hints of a golden cross, suggesting a short-term rebound correction may be needed. However, this is only a pullback after a decline. Once the rebound ends, it is likely that the downtrend will continue—never misjudge a short-term rebound as a trend reversal.

Short-term idea to reference: follow the big-cycle trend; cut losses quickly and enter/exit fast.

Downside move: 63,200 to 62,700 is trending northbound (pulling up). Set a stop-loss at 62,000. Targets are 65,800 to 67,200.

Upside move (selling pressure): 66,800 to 67,300 is trending southbound (pushing down). Set a stop-loss at 68,500. Targets are 65,500 to 64,500.

Actual trading should mainly follow the real-time order book data. For more information, please refer to the author’s updates. The article has a publishing delay, so the suggestions are for reference only—risk is yours to bear. #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 ‌#预测NBA总冠军赢20,000U

BTC-1.57%

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