The Spurs’ room for adjustment—How Wembanyama can break the “meat-shield endurance battle”?

Despite losing Game 1, the San Antonio Spurs are still one of the most tactically astute teams in the NBA. After countless series deficits during his career, coach Gregg Popovich’s greatest strength is making adjustments. If the Spurs want to claw back in the upcoming games, they must solve one core problem: how to keep Wembanyama from getting into direct contact with Mitchell Robinson?

Increase Wembanyama’s off-ball movement

In Game 1, Wembanyama frequently received the ball in the low post, only to be physically shoved out of his comfort zone by Robinson. A better approach is to have him handle the ball from the high post and cut in, using his stride advantage to attack the rim directly; or to add downscreen reads (roll in) after off-ball screens, catching the ball while moving to avoid static contact. In the 2025 playoffs, Wembanyama’s shooting percentage after catching while moving reached 68%, far higher than the 44% on low-post isolation.

Activate the outside shooter group

In Game 1, the Spurs went 10-for-32 from three (31.3%). Of those, Vassell and Jones combined for 12 attempts and only 3 makes. When the Knicks shrink their defensive coverage to protect the paint, the outside shooters must punish them. Popovich will likely increase the time spent with a “five-out” lineup in Game 2, pulling Robinson out of the restricted area and creating space for Wembanyama to attack. At the same time, have Sochan take on more backup ball-handling duties, freeing up Jones’s off-ball runs.

Control turnovers and transition defense

The Spurs had 16 turnovers in Game 1, directly giving the Knicks 22 points. The Knicks are a team that excels at transition offense (averaging 18.5 fast-break points in the playoffs), and Brunson and Quickley are especially lethal in transition. The Spurs must cut down on risky passes and, after missed shots, prioritize getting back on defense rather than sprinting to crash the offensive boards.

Polymarket odds signal

Although the Spurs’ championship probability has fallen to 46%, there is still a lot of “smart money” taking positions near the low end. After Game 1, some large accounts actually increased their bets on the Spurs, backing Popovich’s ability to adjust. Personally, I think the real probability of the Spurs winning the championship is about 45%–50%, and Game 2 will be the indicator for the momentum of the entire series. If the Spurs can get one back and tie the series, the odds will quickly flip.

Conclusion: Winning the Spurs’ championship is by no means impossible, but the premise is that Game 2 must bring effective adjustments. For now, stay on the sidelines; if the Spurs win Game 2, then make a decisive bet on the Spurs.

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