**The Reversal of the Trend After G1 — Why the Knicks Are Now the Better Side to Bet on?**

In Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the New York Knicks turned things around on the road with a 105:95 win over the San Antonio Spurs, taking home-court advantage. Before G1 began, 66% of users on Polymarket backed the Spurs, while only 35% supported the Knicks. However, after the game ended, the odds quickly reversed— the Knicks’ championship probability rose to about 54%, while the Spurs fell to 46%. This 18 percentage-point swing is absolutely not just an emotional reaction from the market, but a real reassessment of what happened in the game.

## Jalen Brunson’s Takeover Ability in the Fourth Quarter

The most critical turning point in G1 came in the fourth quarter. Brunson scored 30 points all game— 19 in the second half— and in the final 6 minutes alone, he went on a run and scored 11 straight points, including a key three-pointer that effectively sealed the win. The Spurs’ defensive strategy against Brunson was “switching + slowing him down,” but whenever he faced Wembanyama or Sochan after screens, he could always use changes in pace to create shooting space. This “ability to solve clutch situations” is the scarcest resource in the Finals.

## Wembanyama’s Inefficient Night

Victor Wembanyama put up 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks on the stat sheet, but he went just 6-for-21 (a 28.6% shooting rate). From three-point range, he was 1-for-7, and he also committed 6 turnovers. The Knicks’ defensive plan was very clear: Mitchell Robinson and Hartenstein took turns using their bodies to push him out of the paint, forcing Wembanyama to make difficult shots from mid-to-long range. As long as this strategy can continue, the Spurs’ offensive system will stall.

## Home-Court Advantage Changes Hands

The Knicks now return to Madison Square Garden with a 1:0 lead. This season, the Knicks’ home record is 38 wins and 7 losses (including the playoffs), making them one of the most terrifying home courts in the league. For the Spurs to win two straight games in New York is extremely difficult. Historical data shows that in the Finals, teams that win Game 1 on the road have a championship probability of over 70%.

**Conclusion:** After G1, the Knicks have already taken the initiative in the series. The 54% Knicks championship probability on Polymarket is a rational price. I lean toward the Knicks winning the series 4:2 or 4:3.

#预测NBA总冠军赢20,000U