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Today, the market's rise and fall pace was quite rapid. In the past, our defense around 1,000 points would definitely be insufficient in this kind of market condition. The main trend is bearish, and rebounds are just opportunities for us to short. But we must enter in batches and not fire all our bullets at once!
Currently, Bitcoin's funding rate has turned negative, indicating that many trapped positions above have already cut losses and exited. In the short term, major players are likely using slight rebounds to shake out and harvest short-term retail traders chasing the market. However, the fundamentals and the major cycle trend have not reversed, so our core strategy remains to short on rebounds and avoid chasing longs.
In the morning, Bitcoin dipped near 61,000 and then quickly surged nearly 4,000 points to above 64,000; in the afternoon, it retreated back to around 72,000; and after the US stock market opened in the evening, it rebounded again above 74,000. The day saw repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears, which also shows that blindly chasing orders will only result in getting hit from both sides and being caught in whipsaws.
Additionally, we should pay close attention to the US-Iran situation. Only when both sides reach a peace agreement will the market see a significant rebound. Without substantial positive news, the rebound space will be limited, and rebounds remain opportunities for short entries.
Currently, technical analysis has limited reference value. The market is trending downward in a one-sided manner, with large areas of trading vacuum in the middle, lacking trading volume support. Technical indicators are of little significance at this stage, and we are in a blind trading phase.
Market fluctuations are disorderly; the best approach is to follow the trend, allocate positions gradually, and patiently wait for the price to reach ideal levels before entering, to maximize risk avoidance.
Specific entry points:
Bitcoin short at 65,500-66,300, with a stop at 67,580, target reducing positions at 63,800, and watch for a breakout towards 62,000-60,500 $BTC
Ethereum short at 1,848-1,870, with a stop at 1,916, target reducing positions at 1,788, and watch for a breakout towards 1,730-1,680 $ETH