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Analysis: Continuous outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs, Strategy selling coins, and worsening macroeconomic conditions have caused Bitcoin to drop 14% this week.
On the funding side, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced outflows for three consecutive weeks, with a total redemption of $4.21 billion, marking the largest institutional de-risking cycle since 2026. Glassnode pointed out that the ETF holding cost is around $83,000, and Bitcoin's recent rebound was rejected in this area, causing the average ETF investor to re-enter an unrealized loss state. On-chain data also shows market structure deterioration. Short-term holders' cost basis has fallen to $76,400 and has dropped below the true market average for the first time since January 2022, indicating the market is entering a structure closer to the late stage of a bear market.
However, Andre Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, said that their internal crypto sentiment index has triggered a contrarian buy signal, with sentiment at the most pessimistic level since the capitulation on February 5th. He believes that the 200-week moving average of Bitcoin, around $61,000, and the realized price, around $56,000, will be key supports in determining whether the correction is nearing its end. The options market remains cautious. QCP Group stated that the signals from the volatility market are not "buying on dips," but rather "buying insurance against declines." Glassnode believes that unless spot demand recovers and ETF investors return to profitability, Bitcoin will not be able to re-enter the $67,000 to $68,000 range. In the short term, resistance remains minimal, leaning toward sideways movement or further decline.