From the 1.1 billion liquidation to see through the main force's intentions: Is this the final "shakeout"?

Whenever a liquidation of 1 billion USD occurs, there are two voices in the market: one is "the bull has run away," and the other is "the main force is violently shaking out." Which one is closer to the truth?

I believe this is a premeditated long squeeze, but not the end of the bull market. There are three reasons:

First, the distribution of liquidations. Out of the 1.1 billion USD, over 85% of the liquidations were long positions. This means the main capital did not exit on a large scale but used macro negative news to precisely target leveraged longs. After liquidation, the forced-off chips were absorbed at low prices, allowing the main force to profit from the spread.

Second, the change in open interest. After the sharp decline, the total open interest of perpetual contracts across the network decreased by about 25%, returning to levels from a month ago. After significant deleveraging, the market structure is healthier. Historically, every acceleration phase of a bull market has been accompanied by at least one "deleveraging-style" correction.

Third, the fundamentals have not been destroyed. ETH's decline is not due to technical failure but short-term liquidity tension and emotional panic. Adoption of Layer 2 solutions is still growing, expectations for Ethereum spot ETFs remain, and the underlying demand for RWA and DeFi has not disappeared.

Of course, this does not mean you can immediately go all-in to buy the dip. The "shakeout" may not be completed in a day. I will adopt a "left-side probing + right-side confirmation" strategy: buy 10% around 1700, if it continues to fall to 1650, add another 10%; if it rebounds and breaks through 1800 with increased volume, add another 10%. Be greedy in panic, and fearful in greed.

#ETH drops more than 5%
$ETH