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Why are prediction markets often inaccurate? Because basketball is not stocks
Stocks can be valued.
Bonds can be priced.
Basketball cannot.
Because there are too many random factors on the court.
Feel for the game.
Injuries.
Fouls.
Emotions.
Even referee calls.
All of these cannot be quantified.
So no matter how smart the prediction market is,
it can't predict three consecutive three-pointers in the fourth quarter.
Nor can it predict a superstar suddenly exploding.
Therefore, 66% is not the answer.
It's just a probability.
And the biggest enemy of probability,
is precisely the unexpected. #预测NBA总冠军赢20,000U #