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How do I interpret news and structure my strategies around it
The headline itself to me carries less weight than most others give. What matters to me is how price reacts to the news itself. Yes there are probabilistic outcomes based on some headlines to preempt direction. However the environment is the larger force that needs to be taken into consideration
Some headlines may look the same. But in different environments it can generate polar opposite reactions. Or the expected reaction could be brief followed by a bigger move in the opposite direction
If bullish headlines are helping trend continuation in an uptrend. Those same headlines will have a weaker impact during a downtrend
Signs of this is when price has a small bullish reaction against the trend then a harder bearish price action takes over. If the price does nothing and stalls from a bullish headline, there's an increased chance of bearish trend continuation. If straight off the bat bullish news sells off with the bearish trend. This is a significant sign of a bearish continuation
Technical analysis also supports this methodology. If you are hammering bull divs and bullish continuation patterns and price keeps going up. If you identify those same bullish setups in a downtrend, the reliability of those working in your favour reduces. On the occasions they go in your favour, it's usually short lived and you end up roundtripping that position. Then a winner often turns into a loser
These setups can often be reversed but some people are just generally better/prefer to be long than short which is completely fine. The hard part is not letting the market tempt you into bull setups within a downtrend in the meantime
This is why I believe it's important to stay on the right side of the news and the technical side. It gives trade ideas a much higher chance of working out
Trade type also matters. Headlines can work out with defined level to level plays. So the trend direction matters a little less. However staying on the right side of the trend with a mean reversion setup strengthens your invalidation point. So the probability of your stop loss getting taken out reduces and the target is likely met faster from your entry level
Multi level swing trades is where a lot of traders get caught out. Counter trend swing plays have higher probabilities of stalling, falling short of your exit and eventually running against you (this can turn sour quickly if you are reluctant to take a loss, start adding to a losing position and become hellbent on reaching break even)
Rule of thumb I use, follow the trend. Whether it's from news the technical setups. Idea is to increase the probabilities across different variables and prioritise the high time frame trend direction itself. Look at what the market is actually doing and not what I want it to do