There are no positive developments in June. How much longer can Bitcoin keep falling?

Today, Bitcoin continues to decline to around 60,000, and in the past 24 hours, there was another 1.6 billion liquidation. I remember yesterday there was an 1.8 billion liquidation.

Many people are still chasing longs at this level, but clearly the market has not rebounded.

In theory, 60,000 should have some support because the previous low was around 60,000, but the US stock market seems to be heading for a small correction. Yesterday, the US stocks fell 0.89%, and futures also dropped 0.8% during the day.

First, a shakeout or correction in the US stock market in June is quite normal because there haven't been many positive catalysts in June. On June 12th, SpaceX went public, with a valuation of 1.77 trillion USD. It immediately became part of the "7 Sisters" market cap club (currently only 15 companies), which requires pulling a lot of liquidity from the market, and that is unfavorable.

Additionally, there are no major company earnings reports in June, and the US-Iran conflict has not been resolved yet. Currently, crude oil is still at 95, and the US stocks have already surged significantly. With high inflation again and no rate cut expectations, June's US stock market is expected to be tough.

If the US stock market doesn't perform well in June, then the Bitcoin community will probably also find it hard to rally. This is currently a significant negative for the Bitcoin scene. Of course, it’s possible that Bitcoin has already declined in advance, but trying to rebound in such a big environment will also be quite difficult.

Moreover, the market has dropped 20% in three days. If it continues to fall sharply, there should also be some rebounds. It’s impossible to keep falling all the time; even in a downtrend, there will be some rebounds before falling further. The current AHR999 index has already reached 0.32, approaching the lowest point in history. So even if you’re just trading short-term, this is an excellent position.

Looking at June as a whole, there are no major positive catalysts, and the probability of a reversal is very low. So, we can only wait for the earnings season at the end of July. As previously mentioned, the MAG7 and semiconductor companies are likely to report good results because market enthusiasm is still there, and orders won’t be digested in just a few months, so the outlook remains optimistic.

Therefore, recently, the focus should still be on semiconductors. If the market pulls back in the next few days, it’s a good opportunity to buy into previously discussed hot semiconductor stocks, such as Micron, which has a forward PE of only in the teens, SanDisk with a forward PE of 7-8, and NVIDIA’s ecosystem. Even with NVIDIA’s recent slight dip, it’s a good time to buy the dip because NVIDIA’s earnings have consistently exceeded expectations. Currently, the 213 level seems to have returned to pre-earnings announcement levels. Don’t expect NVIDIA to crash; that’s almost impossible. NVIDIA is like Kweichow Moutai—mainly institutions banding together.

If NVIDIA continues to rise, its ecosystem may also keep climbing, which is the current main narrative!