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Currently relying solely on candlestick patterns and decline amplitude to anchor support, there are significant conflicts among signals across different timeframes. Therefore, the overall strategy remains conservative, focusing on downward movement to find more reliable entry points. From a higher-level structural perspective, although this week's large bearish candle has broken through some lower support zones, showing a clear breakdown trend, it has not yet fully fallen below. Based on this, a core reference range can be preset for future market movements, with 66,500 as the high point and 58,000 as the low point.
2. Short-term trading and response strategies
From a smaller timeframe perspective, the main market appears to be in a standard bearish arrangement. Although some assets show oversold expectations or similar patterns, there are no clear signs of a trend reversal overall, which constitutes the core difficulty in current trading operations. Given this situation, it is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach:
If the market rises first, considering the limited rebound height on the bearish side, it is advisable to sell high when the opportunity arises;
If the market pulls back first, and the support from yesterday remains effective, it is necessary to broaden the order entry zone and plan the allocation ratio of initial and final positions in advance.
3. Core levels and position planning
The current outlook continues to anticipate a downward trend, with specific levels and strategies as follows:
Short-term resistance zone: 65,310 - 66,094
Short-term support zone: 61,530 - 59,612
Position suggestion: allocate in a 1:2 ratio. If a hammer candlestick's real body shows signs of slowing decline on a 15-minute chart, the final position ratio can be increased to 1:3. All these levels can be monitored and split for individual operations.
Longer-term range: 58,480 - 56,982
This zone is close to the short-term support and final position levels but differs in reference timeframe, belonging to a long-term rebound zone, which has been effective recently. If the market oscillates within the above higher-level reserved zones, this position is likely to be revisited repeatedly.
All of the above are personal insights and do not constitute any investment advice (limited to spot trading; futures contracts should be monitored and managed independently).