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3.8%
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On March 3, the US dollar against the Japanese yen touched 160.44 intraday, the highest since July 2024. On the same day, the Nikkei 225 index broke through 68,000 points for the first time, reaching a peak of 68,634.74 points. With these two figures layered together, a familiar narrative immediately appeared in the market: “The carry trade is about to collapse, and August 2024 will repeat it.”
Half of this narrative is correct. The other half, the data tells an entirely opposite story.