Guotai Junan Futures: Before the main rapeseed producing countries experience a substantial decrease in production expectations, the upside potential for rapeseed oil futures remains relatively limited.

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ICE Canola Futures strengthen, and concerns about weather in major canola-producing countries drive canola oil futures higher. Recently, supported by sustained high crude oil prices and optimistic expectations for long-term U.S. biodiesel demand, CBOT soybean oil continues to hit new highs, boosting Canadian canola prices and subsequently lifting ICE canola futures. At the same time, slow canola planting progress in Canada, lower-than-expected estimates of new crop planting area and yield in Australia by official sources, and the potential reduction in EU canola production due to high temperatures at the end of May have all occurred simultaneously in major canola-producing countries, triggering market concerns about global canola production for 2026/27. Influenced by these two factors, domestic canola oil futures continued to strengthen this week, reaching a new high for the year, with technical buying further pushing up canola oil futures. In the short term, canola oil futures are expected to remain strong; however, overall supply of canola and vegetable oils globally remains ample. Before substantial reductions in new crop production in major canola-producing countries are confirmed, the upside for canola oil futures is expected to be limited. (Guotai Junan Futures)
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