June 4, 2026

This damn market—when it drops, it really does drop pretty hard. Bitcoin has seen 4 straight big bearish candles, wiping out $10k in one go. And just half a month ago, Bitcoin was pushing up and breaking through $80k. Although $80k may indeed have the possibility of being a rebound high, judging from the trend at the time, it was quite easy to reach $90k, and even break through $100k. But that rapid surge ended up going in the opposite direction, which is why Bitcoin’s current price is now edging toward the lowest point of this round of retracement. In other words, the so-called $50k Bitcoin everyone talks about only needs a few percentage points of decline to be reached.
The fuse for the drop was MicroStrategy’s initial coin-selling action, which triggered panic and FUD sentiment in the market. Rather than saying this was targeted at MicroStrategy, it’s more accurate to say it was a coordinated action by the bears. From the big-picture rhythm of things: I classified the rally in the first two months very early on as a “rebound” situation, so I gradually reduced my position—but I reduced too little, and the effect was mediocre. However, it can’t be denied or avoided that after the rebound ends, there will be another round of more brutal sell-off in the second half of the year. And judging from this past few days’ plunge, it may already have started: the deep sell-off and “shakeout” in the second half of the year. Of course, since it’s coming earlier, it will also end sooner. For now, we just need to see whether, in the short term, we can hold the $60k level.
Based on experience from several past bull-and-bear cycles, the probability of dropping below $60k is extremely high, because a “cut in half” level is normal. The question is rather how long the price stays below $60k. Also worth noting: the lowest point of this bull-bear cycle, using a 60% drawdown as the reference, is relatively reasonable. So the price is about…