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“Ghost Rally”: Why Bitcoin Is Falling Again
Bitcoin tried to recover to $83 000 during May, but quickly lost 13% and dropped below $62 000. Glassnode, in its week 22/2026 report, calls this an “rally that never happened.”
What’s really going on:
· Macro pressure. Growth in US job openings, Treasury yields above 4,45%, and the DXY remains above 99. The market is pricing in a Fed rate hike.
· The price is stuck in a bearish range between True Market Mean ($78 000) and Realized Price ($54 000). It’s currently closer to the lower boundary.
· Short-term holders are underwater. Their average purchase price has fallen below the True Market Mean for the first time since January 2022.
· Profit has turned into loss. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has collapsed from 3,16 to 0,29—panic selling, not a correction.
· Long-term holders are giving up. Daily losses of $1,35 billion.
· ETFs can’t save it. The $83 000 level has become resistance precisely because of the average entry price of ETF investors. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $5 billion over four weeks.
Options market: volatility is compressing, but the risk premium is rising. The most active option on June 26 has a strike price of $50 000. Dealers are in the negative gamma zone at $65 000–$70 000, which intensifies price moves.
Bottom line: the market lacks fresh capital. As long as ETF flows don’t return to positive, and new buyers don’t get above the key levels, the bearish scenario remains the main one.
#BTC $BTC