"New Stock God" Serenity: Sivers may become a critical bottleneck and "choke point" in the CPO industry

BlockBeats News, June 4 — On June 4, the “new stock god,” Serenity, posted an analysis saying that as co-packaged optics (CPO) technology is expected to enter large-scale deployment in the second half of 2027, Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) may simultaneously play the role of an industry bottleneck and a critical node.

It pointed out that there have been signs of tightness in the supply of continuous-wave (CW) lasers. Influenced by prior orders related to Nvidia, the capacity of Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, and Win Semi in Japan has become highly saturated. By adopting a fab-lite model, Sivers has secured foundry capacity in advance from manufacturers such as Win Semi, effectively controlling a large amount of the eventual supply of CW lasers.

The analysis believes that multiple CPO routes, including ASIC projects for hyperscale cloud vendors such as Ayar Labs, Jabil, Marvell Celestial, and others, are highly dependent on Sivers’ laser solutions. In the short term, there is a lack of mature alternative sources, causing Sivers to form a structural “bottleneck” position across the entire ecosystem.

In addition, Sivers is also the default reference laser design for GlobalFoundries. Ecosystem participants involved include AMD and multiple CPO chip suppliers. Other than companies with vertical integration capabilities such as Nvidia and Broadcom, most ASIC and commercial CPO projects are likely to center around Sivers.

Serenity expects that as the CPO market size grows from near zero to between $81 billion and $91 billion over the next roughly 1.5 years, Sivers may replicate Lumentum’s growth path and could grow into a company with a market capitalization around $75 billion in the coming years. However, the above views only represent personal judgments by market analysts.