1. Latest Gold Trends: Strong Rebound

International gold price: After a sharp drop yesterday, today it has seen a strong rebound. It is currently trading near 4476 dollars per ounce, with a daily gain of more than 40 dollars (an increase of about 0.9%).

Domestic gold price: Rising in sync as well, the current price is around 974.52 yuan per gram.

2. Middle East Situation: Fighting and Negotiating, Signals Fluctuate

Conflict escalation (pushing up oil prices): Tensions between the US and Iran intensify (the US carries out airstrikes on Iran, and Iran retaliates against US military bases), raising concerns about disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, directly driving up international oil prices.

Ceasefire hopes (easing safe-haven demand): With US mediation, Israel and Lebanon reach a conditional ceasefire agreement, offering hope for easing wider conflict. This prompts oil prices to surge and then pull back.

3. Core Game-Changing Logic: Safe-Haven vs. Inflation

Rebound drivers (buying the dip): The ceasefire news between Israel and Lebanon causes the US dollar to fall, combined with the release of risk from the earlier sharp drop, attracting dip-buyers to re-enter.

Downside factors (inflation backlash): Fighting in the Middle East keeps oil prices elevated, intensifying concerns about global inflation, prompting the market to bet that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates and even raise rates within the year. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold’s carrying cost increases significantly.

4. Key Things to Watch Going Forward

Macroeconomic data: Closely monitor tonight’s US employment-related data. If the data is strong, it will further reinforce expectations of high interest rates and limit the upside space for gold prices.

Geopolitical developments: Substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations and the status of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remain the core variables determining the direction of market safe-haven sentiment. $XAUUSD