These past two days, some people have been touting “stablecoin supply is up = we’re about to take off” and “ETFs coming in = off-exchange money is going all-in” as ironclad rules, and hearing it is honestly a bit headache-inducing for me… Correlation really isn’t the same as causation. To put it plainly: having more stablecoins might just mean everyone has first swapped into “ammo” and is squatting there doing nothing yet, and ETFs might be old money just rerouting through channels—it doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll immediately turn into spot-frenzy buying.

In the past, seeing these data would make me itchy to add to my positions. Now I’ve gotten used to first checking whether there are truly new active users on-chain: are bridges, swaps, and claims increasing? If not, I treat it as noise.

The modular/DA narrative has developers absolutely hyped, but users end up looking totally clueless. Anyway, I don’t chase concepts—I log tasks like tracking mileage; if there’s no marginal benefit, I automate it or just don’t do it, and keep things hassle-free.