1. Cycle Structure

Daily Chart (Medium-term Bearish Dominance)

1. Moving Averages: Price breaks below MA50 (83.4) and MA200 (85.9), with all moving averages in a bearish alignment, indicating clear medium- to long-term pressure, with all upper moving averages turning into resistance levels.

2. Pattern: Double top formed in March-May, neckline at 76.6; after breaking below, the bearish target points toward around 65, currently in the inertia-driven downward phase after the breakout.

3. Indicators: Daily RSI=33.2, approaching oversold zone; MACD below zero line, with small green bars converging, indicating diminishing bearish momentum but no golden cross reversal signal.

4. Bollinger Bands: Opening downward, current price close to lower band, with the midline at 78.5 acting as strong resistance on the daily chart.

4H (Short-term Oversold Rebound Expectation)

• RSI=24.1 entering oversold zone, indicating a technical minor rebound demand; 4H MACD is about to form a golden cross, increasing the probability of short-term stabilization and correction.

• Price range compression within a box, narrow consolidation, with direction dependent on BTC’s breakout.

2. Key Price Levels

Support (from near to far)

S1: 69.8 (Intraday short-term defense, further decline if broken)
S2: 67.3 (Primary daily support, breaking below opens space toward 65.9→64.6)
S3: 65.0 (Medium-term critical support level)

Resistance (from near to far)

R1: 74.4 (First intraday selling pressure)
R2: 77.5 (Double top neckline resistance, difficult to break in one attempt)
R3: 79.9 (Medium-term bull-bear dividing line)

3. Intraday Market Scenario

1. Bullish Scenario: 1H closes above 70, short-term rebound targets 74.3~77.5; if 77.5 is not broken, expect a rally followed by a pullback.

2. Bearish Scenario: Effective break below 69.8 and close below, then downward move toward 67.3, with a break targeting around 65.

3. Sideways Scenario: Range-bound between 69.8 and 74.4, observing market sentiment for evening trend direction.

4. Short-term Trading Strategies

1. Bottom-fishing: Light positions around 67.2~67.5, stop-loss at 66.2, take profit at 73.8~74.3.

2. Short positions: Short at resistance around 74.2~74.5, stop-loss at 75.6, target 69.9→67.5.

3. Wait-and-see: No action between 69.8 and 74.4 to avoid disorderly volatility.

5. Additional Market Logic

24-hour long liquidation loss of 3.89 million USDT, leverage deleveraging continues, spot buying is weak; fundamental on-chain data remains solid but funding is bearish, with price movements highly correlated to BTC market fluctuations.

Risk Reminder: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. The above technical analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. #Gate携手Alpaca链接数字资产与股票金融交易 $SOL

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