#Gate携手Alpaca链接数字资产与股票金融交易 June 4th

Currently, BTC price is around $62,800, down 5.9% in 24 hours, with a total decline of 15.4% over 7 days, entering a rapid deleveraging decline in the short term.

1. Short-term core negative factors

1. Continuous large outflows from ETFs (the key suppression)
The US spot BTC ETF has experienced 11 consecutive trading days of net fund outflows, with a total outflow of over $3.4 billion. Institutional funds continue to exit, turning long-term buy orders into selling pressure, completely breaking the institutional support logic from the first half of the year.
2. Easing confidence among top bulls
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) reduced its Bitcoin holdings for the first time in four years, only slightly selling off but severely damaging market bullish sentiment; combined with large BTC address movements from Mt. Gox, market concerns about large-scale chip selling.
3. Macro + capital diversion double drain
US inflation data remains high, and expectations for Fed rate cuts in June are delayed or even renewed rate hike talks. The high-interest-rate environment suppresses high-risk crypto assets; global funds are flowing into US stocks' AI sector, with existing crypto market funds continuously diverted to the stock market.
4. Derivatives chain liquidation stampede
Over $1.2 billion in liquidations across the entire market in the past 24 hours, nearly $900 million in BTC liquidations alone. Leveraged longs are forced to cut losses, further crashing the market, with short-term bearish momentum sufficient.

2. Key price levels (technical analysis)

- Short-term resistance: first resistance at $65k, strong resistance at $66,500. Only a rebound above $65,000 will ease the downtrend;
- Short-term support: support at $62,000, a key psychological level at $60k. A decisive break below $60k could open up deep correction space, with the next support around $58,500.

3. Future scenario predictions

1. Pessimistic scenario (currently with higher probability): ETF outflows continue + no new funds entering, price tests the $60,000 level, and if broken, targets a range of $55,000-$58k for bottoming and consolidation;
2. Stabilization scenario: quick recovery above $65,000, ETF stops net outflows, and the price may recover to $68,000-$70k range for consolidation;
3. Medium- to long-term variables: monitor the progress of the US stablecoin legislation in July, and the Fed's rate cut expectations in September. These two factors will determine the major direction in the second half of the year.