#IsraelStrikesIranBTCPlunges

Fading Oil Prices Following Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Statement

Crude Oil Focus:

Israel and Lebanon agree to implement a ceasefire, as revealed in a joint statement released by the U.S. Department of State.
Kuwait may restore 70% of its production within six to eight weeks after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
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Thursday, June 4, 2026 - Oil prices this morning are observed to be moving lower on a correction, weighed down by sentiment from the ceasefire statement between Israel and Lebanon, which also sparks hopes for the continuation of ceasefire negotiations to end the Iran war.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to apply a ceasefire, contingent on the complete cessation of firing by Hezbollah and the evacuation of all its members from the Southern Litani Sector, a joint statement released by the U.S. Department of State on Wednesday following negotiations in Washington said. The news boosts expectations for a similar agreement to be reached between the U.S. and Iran.

Also weighing on prices, Kuwait is optimistic it can restore nearly 70 percent of its oil production within six to eight weeks after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, with the remaining 30 percent taking about another month, said Shaikh Khaled Ahmad Al-Sabah, Managing Director of International Marketing at Kuwait Petroleum Company (KPC), on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.97 million barrels in the week ended May 29, exceeding the initial expectation for a decline of 4 million barrels, and also marking the largest drop since February, the EIA said on Wednesday night. The EIA’s stock report suggests strong demand in the U.S. oil market.

Additional support came from Ukraine’s attack that killed at least 3 people in Crimea, the day after Kyiv targeted energy and military sites in Saint Petersburg, said Sergey Aksyonov, the Moscow-appointed head of Crimea, on Thursday morning. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned of the risk of escalation of the Ukraine war through these attacks.

From a technical perspective, oil prices may run into the nearest resistance level at $97 per barrel. However, if negative catalysts emerge, prices could fall to the nearest support level at $92 per barrel.